FXUS63 KMKX 161113 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 613 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through this morning. A Flood Watch remains in effect for all of southern Wisconsin until 7 am CDT, with the watch in effect for southeast portions of the forecast area until 1 pm CDT. - An Areal Flood Warning is in effect for southeast Wisconsin until 1pm. Standing water will cause road closures in spots and may make morning commute routes impassible. Rising creeks and streams may also cause impacts to homes and other structures. Cautious travel is advised. - Another round of heavy rainfall, flooding, and severe thunderstorms is expected Friday afternoon into Friday night. && .UPDATE... Issued 552 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The last of this morning's rain is currently moving offshore over Lake Michigan. Models suggest a few scattered pop-up showers and storms may linger through noon, but widespread rain seems to be ending over southern Wisconsin for today, with subsidence shifting eastward from the Mississippi Valley. An Areal Flood Warning remains in effect over southeast Wisconsin until 1PM this afternoon for roadway flooding and rises on local creeks and streams that may threaten homes and other structures along them. Some typical morning commute routes may be rendered impassable by flood waters. Cautious travel is advised and driving through flood water is not recommended. Dense fog remains over Sheboygan County and model guidance suggests that while vis may improve over 1/4 mile after dawn, fog may linger through mid day. Otherwise, gradual clearing will work into the area from the west. High temps in the 70s are expected in western WI where the sun will be out the longest today, while high temperatures taper off into the mid 60s with eastward extent. CMiller && .SHORT TERM... Issued 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Today through Friday: A shortwave and associated surface low will gradually shift eastward through southern Wisconsin through the overnight and morning hours. Elevated instability will persist during this period, with periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms likely. The storms will be generally slow moving, with lingering precipitable water values of 1- 1.25 inches resulting in a chance for locally heavy rainfall. Given the recent rounds of rainfall, across the area, the Flood Watch has been extended until 1 pm CDT today across southeast portions of the forecast area, with the watch remaining in effect until 7 am CDT elsewhere. Southeast areas have seen some of the higher rain totals and the lingering showers/storms are expected to bring the highest additional amounts to the southeast. Will have to monitor the possibility for another round of fog in north/northeast areas overnight into the early morning hours today. Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for Sheboygan County until 10 AM, and will be monitoring for additional expansions eastward into Fond du Lac, Marquette, and Green Lake Counties through dawn. After the rain winds down by early afternoon, clouds are expected to be slow to exit. Could be enough clearing by mid to late afternoon for temps to crack 70 in the west, with cooler conditions likely towards the east. Light southeast winds Thursday night may result in a period of low clouds and fog in the east, with mostly clear skies elsewhere. The southerly winds will keep temps from falling much, with lows in the low 50s most places, except for cooler conditions in the east. Confidence continues to increase in another round of potentially severe storms on Friday, in addition to more heavy rain and flooding concerns. Latest models have generally maintained the faster frontal timing, with the cold front likely approaching or reaching the western forecast area by early evening. Currently looks like there will be plenty of instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, and favorable wind fields for severe storms, as a 50 kt LLJ leans into the area from the west. Given current model timing, could see supercell development initially in the west, with downstream growth into a line of storms. All severe hazards will be possible with this round of storms, with flash flooding also a concern as precipitable water values ramp back up to around 1.5 inches. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Saturday through Wednesday: Much cooler conditions prevail through this weekend behind the Friday evening/night cold front. Conditions will feel noticeably chillier after the warmth and humidity of this week, with highs either in the upper 40s or low 50s each day. Blustery & breezy northwest winds will lead to feels-like temperatures in the 30s through most of the day Saturday. Overnight lows will fall below freezing Saturday night, with continued breezy northwest winds leading to wind chills in the 20s areawide Sunday morning. Temperatures will trend upward in short order through the start of next week as winds turn back out of the south and southwest. After Friday night's round of storms, some much needed drier conditions appear to be in store from Saturday into the middle part of next week. Next rain chances appear to return by Wednesday night ahead of the next upper disturbance. Quigley && .AVIATION... Issued 606 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Steady rain this morning is moving over Lake Michigan. Scattered showery rain may linger into the post-dawn hours this morning, with drier conditions expected this afternoon. VFR, MVFR, and LIFR conditions remain this morning amongst the soup of low level moisture and dense fog is currently over Sheboygan County and the Wisconsin River Valley. Vis should improve in these areas after dawn, but fog may linger for KSBM through mid day. Light and variable winds will become northerly after dawn and remain light through the day. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A stationary front will gradually slide south this morning. This front will likely exit the lake to the south around midday with light north to northwest flow prevailing behind it. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through tonight now and may need to be continued into Friday as we maintain warmer temperatures and fairly moist air over the lake. Additionally, areas of showers and storms will continue to move over the southern third to half of Lake Michigan this morning with additional storms later this morning as additional convection to the west continues to develop and slide east. Storms are not expected to be strong at this time, however. Winds will become light and variable briefly tonight as a weak ridge passes over the lake, with winds then becoming southerly and breezy Friday ahead of low pressure approaching from the west. Gusty northwest winds then return following a cold front Friday night. Thunderstorms are becoming more likely Friday evening into early Saturday morning, with gusty winds and small hail. Small Craft Advisory may be needed for Friday afternoon and evening with breezy south winds and high waves. Kuroski .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Flood Watch...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058- WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ067-WIZ068 until 7 AM Thursday. Dense Fog Advisory...WIZ052 until 10 AM Thursday. Flood Watch...WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ069-WIZ070- WIZ071-WIZ072 until 1 PM Thursday. LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671- LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874- LMZ876-LMZ878 until 7 AM Friday. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Flood Watch...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058- WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ067-WIZ068 until 7 AM Thursday. Dense Fog Advisory...WIZ052 until 10 AM Thursday. Flood Watch...WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ069-WIZ070- WIZ071-WIZ072 until 1 PM Thursday. LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671- LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874- LMZ876-LMZ878 until 7 AM Friday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee