FXUS64 KMRX 161141 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 741 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 728 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday. Record highs are possible. - Chance of showers late today into tonight but precipitation amounts will generally be light, providing little relief from the worsening drought and fire weather conditions. - A cold front will bring a chance of showers/storms Saturday and Saturday night, followed by cooler temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The persistent large ridge of high pressure centered over the southeastern CONUS will sponsor hot and dry conditions through much of the day today. High temperatures will once again be in the 80s and will not be far off of record highs. Afternoon RH values will be low but not quite as low as recent days, dropping into the 30s across much of the area. However, winds will be a bit stronger with SW winds generally in the 10-15 mph range with higher gusts. It still looks borderline for any fire danger statement, but if one is deemed to be needed it will be issued during the morning hours when coordination with the forestry folks can occur. The mid/upper ridge will briefly be interrupted by a shortwave trough approaching from the west late today that will move across our area during the night. We will see showers approaching from the west later today and these may move into at least western areas later in the afternoon with showers moving across the remainder of the area overnight. Weak forcing and limited moisture will generally result in scattered coverage and light rainfall amounts, providing little relief from the ongoing drought conditions and wildfires. Right now, QPF values generally range from just a few hundredths of an inch to a quarter of an inch. Models show some limited instability (HREF mean MUCAPE values are generally around or less than 500 J/kg) that may support a few thunderstorms, with the highest chance for thunder being across our Plateau counties. Shear looks too weak to suggest a severe threat. The ridge will build back Friday behind the departing shortwave trough. High temperatures will be approaching records again on Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances will arrive by Saturday night as models show a deep trough developing over the Plains that will drag a cold front through our area. Models are in decent agreement on this scenario, although differ a bit more in the details that will be important in determining how much precipitation we will see. Ensemble data currently shows around a 20% (south) to 50% (north/west) chance of seeing over a half inch of rain in a 24 hour period. A significant severe threat looks unlikely at this time given the generally weak dynamics and limited moisture/instability ahead of the system on Saturday. Cooler temperatures move in on Sunday behind the front, with highs near or even a bit below normal both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will begin to trend warmer again Tuesday and Wednesday. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002) 04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955) 04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 728 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions with gusty southwesterly winds again this afternoon. A few showers and storms will spread across the region this evening, with a BKN/OVC mid-level cloud deck expected. Confidence in coverage of activity remains on the lower side, so only vicinity showers have been included at TYS/CHA. A brief prob30 for rain has been included at TRI where hi-resolution models have the greatest agreement. Depending how rainfall plays out, there is potential for MVFR cigs or vis to develop Friday morning, but confidence is too low to include mentions outside of the discussion at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 61 89 61 / 20 20 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 60 85 59 / 30 50 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 84 58 85 58 / 40 60 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 58 81 54 / 10 60 10 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...KRS