FXUS64 KOHX 161047 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 547 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 526 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - There are medium to high rain/storm chances this evening, and again Saturday. A few strong storms with gusty winds are possible this evening, but the severe weather threat is low today and Saturday. - Expect unseasonal warmth to last through Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 526 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 I think CAMs have started to come into better agreement on storms today so I've made some adjustments to PoPs throughout the day based on these trends. Basically revolves around light rain with this wave we're seeing on radar this already this morning. This will probably dissipate through the morning hours and may not even make it to the the Plateau before it dries up. As we get into the afternoon, radar should be relatively clear and the sun should act to build our instability. Here's the catch: I think the strength of late afternoon/early evening storms is going to depend on timing and the latest few runs of the HRRR is showing early evening (7-9 pm) arrival of a cluster of storms. This means we may be able to bleed off some of the instability that builds in the afternoon and mitigate what would otherwise be a significant wind threat. If they arrive earlier (say 4-6 pm) at the TN River, then we could see a greater wind threat for those who see the storm activity. The day shift will get several more CAM runs before any of this stuff gets here later today to fine tune arrival time. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Clouds will fill in in the area overnight ahead of tomorrow's severe threat. There is a low to medium probability (20-40%) of seeing some showers in the morning, but these would be sub-severe. Later in the afternoon, as surface heating occurs and our temperatures approach the low 80s, lapse rates will steepen alongside a shortwave. This will present a severe threat that is marginal in nature (level 1 out of 5), but still something to watch. While the severe threat is low and looks to be isolated tomorrow afternoon and evening, the main hazards look to be gusty winds and some hail. Some guidance is putting out a complex of storms that will move west to east across the area, however, the models that were showing this have since backed off this outcome in recent outputs. We will have to see as things progress tomorrow, and what things look like to our west once the threat develops, so stay tuned to the latest forecast information. Once the severe threat moves on, Friday will be much warmer. Highs look to get into the mid to upper 80s in the afternoon, with an isolated rain threat in the afternoon. This looks to be more of a diurnal chance, reliant on the daytime heating of the surface. Regardless, the chances are low (<25%), with the highest likelihood of seeing some drops being in the northwest near the Land Between The Lakes. Unfortunately, neither of these rain chances in the short term look to help us out with our drought. QPF amounts tomorrow are less than half an inch across Middle Tennessee, with very little additional help on Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Our next rain chance comes on Saturday, with a strong cold front propagating into Middle Tennessee as a low pressure system pushes into Canada from the northern great plains. The severe threat with this FROPA is underwhelming, as the convective activity lags behind the actual front itself. A post-frontal environment is not conducive for severe weather, so I'd be surprised to see more than a couple of severe storms on Saturday, and that's a stretch. Unfortunately, QPF is disappointing with this as well, with amounts over the weekend barely cracking half an inch into Sunday. We'll need a lot more rain that that to bust this drought, but some rain will help water the plants. Surface high pressure sets in post-frontal, keeping things quiet for the beginning of the work week. That cold front will pack a punch, dropping our highs into the 60s on Sunday. Highs will warm into the low 80s mid-week, so don't get too used to the below normal temperatures! && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 526 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A little better confidence on this evening's storms going into this TAF cycle. Some light rain in the morning, but we should remain VFR. TS this evening will come with brief reduction to MVFR then return to VFR for the rest of the night. Winds will be less than 10 kts through 15-16Z, then become breezy through 00Z/Fri. Will continue to highlight this evening's storm potential with PROB30s and adjust through the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 82 61 88 68 / 60 40 20 10 Clarksville 80 61 88 68 / 60 20 20 20 Crossville 80 56 82 61 / 40 30 10 0 Columbia 82 58 87 66 / 60 60 20 0 Cookeville 79 58 82 64 / 40 20 10 10 Jamestown 80 56 82 62 / 40 20 10 10 Lawrenceburg 82 58 86 66 / 40 60 10 0 Murfreesboro 82 58 87 66 / 50 50 20 0 Waverly 80 61 88 68 / 60 60 20 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Unger SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Unger