FXUS66 KOTX 161155 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 455 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and snow showers in Idaho and far eastern reaches of Washington Thursday. - Morning lows near to below freezing through Friday. - Warming and drying trend Friday through Monday. - Increasing rain chances early next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Overnight lows will be cold with near to below freezing temperatures. Rain and snow showers will continue in Idaho and far eastern Washington Thursday. Warmer and drier conditions return Friday through the weekend. Next round of showers expected early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today-tonight: The region will be under northwest flow aloft as an upper-level ridge builds toward the WA Coast and low pressure departs to the east. It will be a cold start to the day with subfreezing temperatures for much of the region. Following a few hours of warming, cumulus clouds will redevelop with isolated to scattered showers over the Idaho Panhandle and extreme eastern third of WA. Midlevels will be slow to warm over these areas coinciding with the backside of the departing low. Additionally, a midlevel wave will drop southward from BC with some degree of organization within the shower fields starting in the late morning and continuing into the afternoon. Motorists should prepare for winter travel conditions over Lookout Pass, mainly in the morning with snow showers in the afternoon likely having a hard time accumulating on roads. Thursday night will be another chilly night with even lighter winds and modest clearing. Be prepared for care for sensitive plants once again region-wide. Friday-Monday: There is increasing confidence for dry conditions closing out the work week and heading into the weekend. The ridge of high pressure will over the region Friday and Saturday delivering light winds, warming temperatures, and clear to partly cloudy skies. This has a support from nearly all ensemble models. An area of low pressure comes into play by late weekend into early next week. This system drops out of the Gulf of AK Sunday into Monday and will most likely take a track along or just off the WA Coast (80-85% chance). Dry conditions will continue for the Inland NW with an easterly component to the wind field. If the 20% of ensemble members come to fruition with a slightly more inland track, then light precipitation will be possible for the Inland NW with the passage of a warm front. There will be more clouds present by Sunday into Monday, at least in the mid to high levels. Temperatures will be on warming trend, roughly 5-7 degrees each day. Overnight lows will be cool with freezing temperatures in the mountain valleys each morning and a slow transition from mid 30s to lower 40s for remaining lowlands. Tuesday-Thursday: Trends will be toward cooler temperatures and increasing precipitaiton chances with 60-65% or more ensemble members swinging the offshore low inland. The main variance in the models is exactly when does this occur (Tuesday or Wednesday). This does not look like a very wet pattern but a more typical April instability shower threat with with spotty light rainfall amounts. Temperatures will cool slowly with the passage of the system from the 60-70s back into the 50-60s, very close to late April averages. /sb && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: The band of more organized band of showers has not materialized yet but is still forecast to track north to south 14-21Z falling as snow for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE, mix for KPUW, and rain for KLWS due to the later timing. Prior to the arrival of this wave, there is a 60% chance for MVFR cigs to develop around KCOE and KPUW. Winds will remain breezy on Thursday with gusts around 25kts. The system will begin to exit Thursday night with clearing skies, decreasing winds, and chilly temperatures. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate confidence on the early morning MVFR stratus. Moderate confidence for an organized band of showers but low if this will drive vis down below 5SM. High confidence for VFR conditions to return tonight though fog is possible in the valleys of NE WA and N ID Thursday night. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 50 29 54 32 62 38 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 46 29 52 30 60 36 / 60 10 0 0 0 0 Pullman 45 29 51 32 60 39 / 50 10 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 50 33 56 33 65 41 / 30 10 0 0 0 0 Colville 54 26 57 28 62 33 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 44 28 49 29 57 35 / 80 10 10 0 0 0 Kellogg 41 28 47 28 57 36 / 90 20 20 0 0 0 Moses Lake 59 30 60 34 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 55 35 59 39 63 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 57 32 61 36 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM PDT this morning for Moses Lake Area- Upper Columbia Basin-Wenatchee Area. ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for Central Panhandle Mountains. && $$