FXUS63 KPAH 161503 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1003 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected this morning (40-80% chances), with slightly lower chances (30-55%) from midday into early this evening. - Scattered showers and storms return Friday afternoon (30-40% chances), then chances will increase significantly late Friday night into Saturday (70-85% chances) with the approach and passage of a cold front. - High temperatures will be near record readings Friday ahead of the cold front. - A significant cool down is expected over the weekend, then we will see a warming trend next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1003 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 CAMs still pretty consistently (moreso now than earlier even) like to develop discrete cells and multicell clusters over northern Arkansas and south central Missouri in the next few hours that track eastward and southeastward into SEMO and western Kentucky through the early afternoon. Boundary layer heating is somewhat limited by antecedent cloud cover over Southern Illinois and western Kentucky but it does appear sufficient heating will occur to lead to at least 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by early afternoon. Given the very steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient deep layer shear am concerned about large hail threats with any cells that form and organize. Low-level inverted V appears modestly favorable for isolated damaging wind gusts as well. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms (40-80% chances) will persist through the morning hours today ahead of an upper level wave moving toward the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys. Scattered convection (30-60% chances) will continue develop in the heat of the day from midday into early this evening until the upper wave pushes east of the region. Dry conditions can be expected late tonight into Friday morning. On Friday, near record high temperatures are expected as south winds increase ahead of a cold front. Forecast highs are in the 83 to 87 degree range, with current records in the 86 to 89 degree range. Clouds/convection will play a big part in whether any locations can tie or break a record. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible by Friday afternoon (30-40% chances), with more organized convection arriving by late Friday night into Saturday with the approach and passage of a strong cold front. Chances by late Friday night into Saturday morning will increase to 70-85%. The highest chances late Friday night will be focused across southern Illinois and southeast Missouri, by Saturday morning across the entire area, then by late Saturday afternoon across west Kentucky and southwest Indiana. Small chances of showers (20% west to 45% southeast) will linger into Saturday evening, with a stray shower still possible late Saturday night from southwest Indiana into the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky. Rainfall totals from Friday afternoon through Saturday night will generally be from a third to around three quarters of an inch. Much cooler conditions will follow the cold front with breezy northwest winds. Highs on Saturday will be in the middle 60s to middle 70s, lows Saturday night in the upper 30s to lower 40s, and highs Sunday in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Surface high pressure will move to our east Sunday night, shifting winds back to the south. A warming trend will begin Monday, with near normal temperatures Monday, and well above normal temperatures by Wednesday. Models show a weak cold front approaching our area from the north by mid week, producing small chances (15-25%) of showers and storms late Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 659 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Isolated to potentially scattered shra/tsra possible through 00z, but chances and confidence too low to include in TAFs. If convection occurs at a TAF site, brief MVFR vsbys are possible. Winds will be from the south to southwest at 6-12kts with a few gusts to 15-18kts possible, decreasing to 5kts or less after 00z. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...JGG DISCUSSION...RST AVIATION...RST