FXUS65 KPIH 161130
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
530 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frontal Progression: A cold front continues to traverse the
  region this morning, maintaining elevated winds and shifting
  precipitation into a showery phase by midday.

- Winter Weather Headlines: Winter Weather Advisories remain in
  effect for the Island Park area and Bear River Range through
  early Friday morning, while headlines for the central
  mountains are slated to expire later today.

- Convergence Band Potential: High-resolution models suggest a
  potential convergence band today, which could bring light snow
  to valley floors but confidence is still low.

- Freeze Warnings: Widespread sub-freezing temperatures in the
  low to mid-20s are expected tonight and again Friday night.
  Freeze Warnings are in effect to protect vulnerable early-
  season vegetation.

- Substantial Weekend Warm-Up: Rapidly building high pressure
  will usher in a dry weekend, with temperatures soaring into
  the upper 60s and mid-70s by Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

A cold frontal boundary is currently pushing through Eastern
Idaho, characterized by breezy synoptic winds and broken bands
of precipitation. As the front progresses, the steady overnight
precipitation is expected to transition into a more showery
regime by mid-to-late morning, with rain changing over to snow
in many areas as a much colder air mass filters into the region.
While travel impacts will begin to diminish in the central
mountains later today, Winter Weather Advisories remain in
effect through early Friday morning for the Island Park region
and the Bear River Range, where mountain snow will be most
persistent.

One area of lingering uncertainty is the potential for a
convergence band signature appearing on high-resolution models.
If this feature develops, it could produce light snow across
lower valley floors this afternoon and evening, though
accumulations would be minimal. Synoptic winds will remain
breezy with gusts up to 30 mph, though generally staying below
advisory thresholds. Daytime highs today and Friday will remain
quite chilly, ranging from the 30s in the high country to the
40s in the lower valleys.

Once the bulk of the precipitation tapers off, the primary
concern shifts to the impending cold. Widespread sub-freezing
temperatures are forecast for tonight and again Friday night
into Saturday morning. Freeze Warnings remain in effect for the
Snake Plain and Magic Valley, where a hard freeze is expected as
temperatures drop into the low to mid-20s. While Friday night
may be a touch warmer than tonight, a hard freeze remains likely
nearly everywhere. These temperatures pose a significant risk
to early-season crops and blossoms that have already emerged
following a very mild winter.

Relief arrives quickly as we head into the weekend. High
pressure will build rapidly over the Intermountain West, ending
all precipitation and initiating a significant warming trend.
Temperatures will return to seasonal normals on Saturday before
soaring well above average by Sunday. Valley locations can
expect pleasant highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s for both
Sunday and Monday. Looking into early next week, model
confidence remains low regarding the arrival of the next Pacific
system. Due to continued model struggles with the upper-level
evolution across the Pacific Northwest, precipitation chances
have been delayed until at least late Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Frontal boundary has pushed through the region brining much
colder air to eastern Idaho. Precip has changed over to snow, at
least briefly, and this remains the expected precip type over
the course of the day. Activity will become more showery in
nature throughout the day which will make timing out impacts
difficult so maintained a series of TEMPOs and PROB30 groups.
CIGs will likely bounce around from IFR to low-end VFR
throughout the day as well with SHSN likely continuing across
the area through around 17/02-04Z before precip starts to taper
off and skies begin to clear as the system starts to depart from
the area. Winds will remain breezy throughout much of the day,
15-20 kts with gusts upwards of 30 at times around KBYI, KIDA
and KPIH, slightly less at KSUN and KDIJ.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for IDZ051>055.
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 10 AM MDT Friday for IDZ051>055.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Friday for IDZ060-066.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for IDZ071>074.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McKaughan
AVIATION...McKaughan