FXUS65 KPUB 161122 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 522 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread Critical Fire Weather Conditions expected Thursday across southern Colorado. Critical Fire Weather Conditions are looking less likely Friday across portions of Las Animas and Baca counties due to the faster timing of a cold front, but will maintain the Fire Weather Watch for now. - Colder temperatures with a chance of rain and snow spreads across the central and southeast mountains and adjacent plains Friday. Accumulating snow possible down to 6000 feet across the Pikes Peak region. - Sub-freezing temperatures likely Saturday morning and again Sunday morning which could damage or kill tender vegetation and freeze exposed pipes. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 111 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The next system moving across the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Basin today will increase the flow aloft across southern CO as it approaches this afternoon and evening. Surface lee trough deepens and kicks eastward in response, increasing west to southwesterly flow with compressional downslope warming and drying resulting in critical fire weather conditions. Gusts up to 30 to 40 mph will be possible across the lower elevations with gusts up to 60 mph in and near the mountains. Humidity values will drop to as low as 7 percent, though where winds are strongest, humidity values will be more moist than the 9 percent threshold needed for a PDS Red Flag. So while it does look like a higher end Red Flag event, it will not meet requirements for the strongest PDS wording. In fact, it may be rather late in the day before critical fire weather conditions finally get met across portions of Prowers and Kiowa counties where some of the lowest RHs are. Otherwise, it will be warm with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s across the plains with 60s for the valleys and 40s and 50s for the majority of the mountain locals. Winds decrease late in the evening with enhanced westerly flow keeping low temperatures on the mild side ahead of cold front which will be moving into the western and northern portions of the forecast area towards dawn. Showers will spread into the Continental Divide and Pikes Peak region towards dawn. Have kept low temperatures on the mild side given the enhanced westerly flow through most of the night. -KT && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 111 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 An active period continues for Friday as the base of the upper trough swings through CO Friday morning sending a cold front through most of the region during the morning. Timing of the cold front is a little faster with high res models showing it reaching the southern border as early as 15z. This puts the Fire Weather Watch on Friday in jeopardy. Do not plan to upgrade it yet, and will let later shifts get one last look before potentially taking the Fire Weather Watch down, in case the timing of the front changes yet again. Otherwise, there will be a significant cool down behind the front with snow levels dropping to around 6000 feet during the afternoon across the Pikes Peak region. This coincides with a brief period of saturation and instability where some briefly intense snowfall rates could occur. However by the time saturation occurs, upper lift with the system will be pushing east into KS, so will have to rely on upslope as the primary mechanism unless the front or the system slows down. This points to the Pikes Peak region for the best juxtaposition of parameters. Probabilities of seeing advisory criteria snowfall amounts of 6 inches or more are under 15% for Teller and northern El Paso Counties, and around 50% or less for over 3 inches of accumulation. Brevity of the event, and residual warmth of the ground may also play an important role in limiting snowfall accumulations. However, it will be a shock to the system given the unseasonable warmth lately. For now, think impacts will be limited due to brevity and timing during the day, so no winter weather advisories will be hoisted this package. Heaviest QPF should stay north of highway 50 and pinned up against the mountains. Gusty north winds can be expected behind the front with gusts up to 40 to 50 mph possible across portions of the plains. Could see a rain snow mix as far down in elevation as 4500 feet but accumulations are not likely beyond brief slush on grassy surfaces below 6000 feet. Temperatures will be considerably cooler and went below the NBM mean for highs which will likely occur in the early morning for northern areas. Activity should clear out Friday night with a hard freeze likely across most of southern CO. the Freeze Watch still looks good, and will maintain for now in concert with neighboring offices. There is a high probability (75-100% chance) in NBM of seeing subfreezing temperatures, and a 50 to 100% chance of sub 28 degree readings (or a hard freeze) across most of southern CO. Due to the early start to the growing season, the Freeze Watch will likely need to be upgraded to a Freeze Warning with later packages. Saturday will warm up and dry out and temperatures Saturday night will likely drop below freezing once again especially along and north of the Arkansas River through Sunday morning. More Freeze Watches may be necessary. It dries out and warms up for Sunday into early next week, though once upper flow transitions to more southwesterly next week, it could tap sufficient moisture for some isolated showers over the mountains. Another system late week may bring another uptick in precipitation chances towards Thursday and Friday though timing and storm track is still highly variable among the long range models/ensembles. Stuck close to model blends for now. -KT && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 522 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions are anticipated across the forecast area over the next 24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Plan on S-SW surface winds beginning to increase through the morning, with gusts up around 30-35 kts for most locations generally between 21z and 03z. Mentioned wind shear at KPUB this morning until midday. Cold front drops south across the Palmer Divide tomorrow morning, towards the end of the forecast period, affecting KCOS. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>222-224>237. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for COZ083>089-093>099. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for COZ230-233-237. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...MOORE