FXUS61 KRNK 160656 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 256 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation Updated. Lowered the dewpoints to be more in line with the deeper mixing, otherwise no changes to the forecast. Removed snow showers on Sunday afternoon, but left flurries in for Sunday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Well above normal temperatures through Saturday, with much cooler temperatures Sunday into early next week. 2. Mountain showers possible Thursday night/Friday morning. Better chances for rain arrive late Saturday into Sunday. Gusty post frontal winds behind front to start the next work week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Well above normal temperatures through Saturday, with much cooler temperatures Sunday into early next week. Through Saturday, ridging over the Gulf of America keeps it hold over the SE states and just barely into the Mid-Atlantic. This ridging along with high pressure at the surface and persistent SW flow has contributed to the hot weather this week. Tonight into Friday a short wave will interrupt that pattern and bring some scattered rain chances to the area. This will push temperatures down at least a couple days tomorrow, but we still remain quite warm. Today however looks like the last day we could break records; see Climate section below. The next real pattern change comes Saturday night into early next week. A strong cold front will usher in drier and cooler air over the weekend, which will result in below normal temperatures. Sunday and Monday, there is about a 30 percent chance the mountains won't warm above 60 degrees outside of the warmer urban areas. For Roanoke, Lynchburg and the Piedmonts of VA and NC, it remains quite warm initially Sunday, but chances for warming above 65 percent drop to about 30 percent for Monday's highs. Next Tuesday through Thursday we will see a gradual warmup. Temperatures will generally be a few degrees below normal for the mountains still, but above normal for the Piedmont. Even so it will not be nearly as warm as it has been recently. See fire weather sections below for details on today's fire danger. KEY MESSAGE 2: Mountain showers possible Thursday night/Friday morning. Better chances for rain arrive late Saturday into Sunday. Gusty post frontal winds behind front to start the next work week. A decent shortwave crosses the area late Thursday night through Friday, dragging a weak front through the Mid Atlantic. Model guidance at this time shows rain showers reaching the western boundary of the forecast area around sunset Thursday, and the majority of precipitation during the overnight hours, though models also show the precipitation washing out over the mountains, not much rain making it to the Piedmont. Timing of the shortwave passage is not very favorable for convection, but cannot rule out a few thunderstorms early in the event as the front tracks closer from the OH Valley. Initial amounts at this time are up to a quarter of an inch in the Greenbrier Valley of southeast WV, quickly tapering to a tenth of an inch or less eastward to the Blue Ridge, with little to no precip expected in the east. This will just exacerbate the ongoing drought in VA and NC, where it has been 10 days since at least a tenth of an inch of rain, and almost 20 days since a quarter of an inch of rain in the NC Piedmont and VA Southside, as of this writing. Higher chances for a more widespread rainfall comes Saturday into Sunday, with the arrival of a stronger front. The upper trough will suppress the persistent ridge over the eastern US, also bringing a sharp drop in temperatures. Good consensus among the deterministic models on the timing of this frontal passage, with showers beginning as early as Saturday afternoon west of the Blue Ridge, expanding in coverage eastward by Saturday evening, continuing through most of Sunday. The overall progressive nature of the front will limit rainfall amounts somewhat, and looks to weaken as it crosses the mountains. Higher rainfall amounts are expected west of the Blue Ridge, with amounts up to half an inch possible in parts of southeast WV, between a tenth to a quarter of an inch from the WV/VA border to the I-81 corridor, and up to a tenth in the Piedmont. Most likely opportunity for convection will be along the front itself, so mainly Saturday evening/night, which is not extremely favorable for strong thunderstorms. With the colder air filtering in behind the frontal passage, may see some snow showers in the higher elevation locations of southeast WV Sunday night, though warm ground temperatures will likely preclude any accumulations. Will have to watch for gusty post frontal winds Sunday and Monday, but otherwise high pressure will keep the weather dry until midweek, when another system approaches and looks to bring some precipitation to the mountains. Without much wetting rainfall expected east of the Blue Ridge through the next seven days, can anticipate drought conditions to remain or worsen for those areas, and will likely have to monitor for fire weather concerns Monday with the gusty northwesterly winds. See the Fire Weather Section for more details on fire danger through the week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast through 06Z for most TAF sites. Although rain is possible today for the mountains, chances look best tonight as the better forcing arrives, and have kept any TSRA/SHRA restricted until after 00Z for BLF and LWB. After 06Z tonight we will see mostly MVFR developing in -SHRA for ROA and BCB as well. SW winds continue today with gusts to about 20 knots from mid morning through this evening. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... The pattern changes over the weekend with a stronger front moving through late Saturday into Sunday, bringing better chance of showers and the potential for sub-VFR cigs/vsby, especially for the mountains. Light W/SW winds turn briefly WNW Friday afternoon and evening with gusts as high as 20 kts. Winds diminish overnight, then become SW and gusty again for Saturday. NW Winds behind the second system will be gusty Sunday to 30 knots for the mountains. Cooler weather and VFR conditions follow for early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... ...Fire Danger Statement in effect through 8 PM for the VA Highlands, VA Piedmont, and all of NW NC... Unusually warm and dry conditions continue with record heat possible again today. Some rainfall is possible this afternoon into Friday morning, but probabilities appear low and confined to the mountains. Relative humidities will fall towards 20 to 30 percent for the next few afternoons, especially east of the Blue Ridge. Some southern-facing slopes may have relative humidities drop below 20 percent with afternoon sunshine and gusty winds, due to an unstable atmosphere from the increasing heat. For the mountains, minimum RH values will be closer to 40 to 40 percent. SW winds will be gusty to 20 mph or so from mid morning through this evening. Winds shift to more of a WNW direction by Friday afternoon with similar gusts. Saturday winds turn back to the SW and will be gustier ahead of a front. These conditions will continue to escalate the danger of adverse fire behavior across the entire region. Fire containment will be difficult through Saturday. The next notable chance for any widespread wetting rainfall comes Saturday night into Sunday with a cold front, but amounts look very light again for most. && .CLIMATE... The following record high maximums are in jeopardy today due to the abnormal warmth: For Today, April 16, 2026. Station Hi Max T Forecast Max T Roanoke 90 in 2002 89 Lynchburg 91 in 2002 89 Danville 92 in 2002 91 Bluefield 81 in 2012 79 Blacksburg 82 in 1941 84 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AS/SH AVIATION...SH FIRE WEATHER...SH CLIMATE...SH