FXUS64 KSHV 161147 AAA AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 647 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will continue into this afternoon, mainly for areas north of I-20. - A strong cold front will move through the region on Saturday, bringing more widespread rain chances to the area. - Below normal temperatures will follow in the wake of the cold front from Sunday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Radar imagery early this morning continues to show areas of showers and thunderstorms for areas north of I-30, mainly across far southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas. These storms have been sub-severe and should remain this way through the next few hours. Short range models indicate that this activity should be out of the area by around 06-08z. That being said, there NBM continues to maintain some low PoPs for our northern areas into this afternoon. Mostly dry conditions then settle in for Thursday night and most of Friday, before precipitation chances increase again as a strong cold front begins to approach the area from the northwest by Friday evening. This cold front will bring more widespread rainfall to the area starting early Saturday morning and exiting the area to the southeast by Saturday night. There are some pretty decent indications that this could be a good soaking rainfall for most locations. Drier conditions move in behind the cold front and will limit precipitation chances through at least Monday, after which , some low end PoPs return to the forecast but right now will remain low end. Temperatures today will range from the lower 80s to around 90 degrees across the region, which is roughly 8-12 degrees above seasonable normals. MIld temperatures remain for tonight, with lows in the lower to mid 60s. Friday will be similar to today in terms of high temperatures, however, Friday night is when things begin to "cool" down. We will see a wider variety of temperatures on Friday night as the cold front begins to enter the northwest portions of the area, where lows Saturday morning will be in the lower to upper 50s, while the remainder of the area will be in the lower to upper 60s. With the rain expected through the day Saturday, and the advancing cooler air, we will see a wide variety of high temperatures that afternoon as well, with ranges from the mid 60s across our northern zones to the mid 80s across our southeast zones. Saturday night will be chilly, or pleasant depending on how you like it, with lows ranging from around 40 degrees to the north and 50 degrees to the south. We could even see some upper 30s across our far northern zones. Sunday will be nice, with highs in the lower to mid 70s, followed by another chilly night Sunday night into Monday and then another pleasant day on Monday. From here we will see temperatures slowly start to rise again, returning to the lower to mid 80s by the middle of the week. /33/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 647 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Low MVFR cigs have developed and spread N across much of E TX/N LA and just recently, portions of Srn AR this morning, but have yet to develop near TXK and the Nrn sections of SW AR which were impacted by early morning convection. This should change though over the next couple of hours, especially as isolated convection diminishes over this area, with the cigs not returning back to VFR again until late morning/midday. Cu cigs should linger though through a good portion of the afternoon before scattering out, and diminishing shortly after 00Z Friday. Should see some thin cirrus cigs increase from the W this evening, before MVFR cigs redevelop over Deep E and SE TX/SW LA by 06Z and spread N across much of the region overnight. These cigs may not reach the SW AR and MLU terminals until around/shortly after 12Z, and linger through much of the morning before lifting. S winds 8-12kts, with occasional gusts to 20kts this morning over E TX after 15Z, will diminish to 5-10kts after 00Z. /15/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 647 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 87 66 88 68 / 10 0 0 10 MLU 89 65 90 66 / 10 0 0 0 DEQ 82 62 85 56 / 20 10 10 40 TXK 85 67 89 65 / 30 10 0 20 ELD 85 63 88 64 / 30 0 0 10 TYR 85 66 86 64 / 10 0 0 20 GGG 85 66 87 66 / 10 0 0 10 LFK 87 66 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...33 AVIATION...15