FXUS64 KSJT 161107 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 607 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A few isolated thunderstorm are possible late this afternoon and into the evening, but chances for severe storms are small. - A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 107 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Another day, another day with a chance for isolated thunderstorms across the area. Dryline develops across the western portions of the area, although it appears to even more diffuse than in previous days. CAPE values ahead of the dryline will still be 3000+ J/kg but given the lack of appreciable upper support and weak surface convergence along the dryline, CAMs are showing only isolated activity. Will keep POPs at the 20% or less and see if anything can develop. Will add however, that if a storm can develop and then survive the relatively weak shear aloft, getting some severe size hail cannot be ruled out. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 107 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The next strong storm system with a sharper dryline will move into the Central and Southern Plains Friday. Looks like the more organized severe weather will remain north of our area. However, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across west central Texas during the late afternoon into Friday night. A cold front is south of the area by Saturday morning with cooler and mainly dry weather this weekend into early next week. However, return southerly flow may result in a low chance of showers and a few thunderstorms early next week. Temperatures will be slightly above normal this week. Please keep up with the latest weather information as the month of April is severe weather season. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Low clouds and fog have developed across West Central Texas. Its again patchy in some locations, but most areas will see IFR/MVFR conditions persist into tho late morning hours once again. After that, some lifting and breaking up of the stratus will lead to VFR conditions for the afternoon and evening hours. Isolated convection possible once again but again, too much uncertainty on how much coverage and where it may develop to warrant adding a mention into the terminals quite yet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 88 66 90 51 / 10 10 10 40 San Angelo 88 65 90 51 / 10 20 10 40 Junction 87 61 88 53 / 10 10 10 20 Brownwood 86 63 86 52 / 10 10 10 40 Sweetwater 90 66 92 51 / 10 20 10 40 Ozona 85 64 87 54 / 10 10 10 40 Brady 85 63 86 53 / 10 10 10 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...07