FXUS62 KTAE 161309 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 909 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 908 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Patchy to Areas of fog are possible in the FL Panhandle, Big Bend, SE Alabama, and portions of SW Georgia each morning heading into the weekend. Fog could be dense for areas west of the Ochlockonee River. If encountering fog while driving, slow down, use low beam headlights, and increase braking distance. - Little or no rain is expected through this weekend. Drought conditions will worsen. Fire concerns will remain elevated. Use extreme caution with any outdoor burning. Please heed burn bans where they are in effect. - Above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend, with lower 90s likely late this week. - Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely over our marine zones for Sunday into Tuesday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 908 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Pockets of fog continue for another hour or so along the I-10 corridor before lifting and dissipating. Ample sunshine will allow temperatures to push well into the 80s with a few spots flirting with 90 this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through next Wednesday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Strong mid level high pressure is situated over the northeast Gulf and up the eastern seaboard while a shortwave trough is located in the southern Plains. The ridge will be shunted south this afternoon and tonight as the trough moves northeast through the Tennessee Valley. The ridge builds back northward ahead of another trough moving through the Plains and an associated cold front. Before the front arrives Sunday, very warm temperatures will continue into the first half of the weekend. Highs will continue in the mid to upper 80s with around 90 degrees in some locations in the Florida Big Bend and southern Georgia / I-75 corridor Friday and Saturday. Along with this, fog development appears likely each morning through Saturday. HREF/NBM probs for dense fog is around 60- 70% through the Panhandle and Big Bend where a dense fog advisory is in effect and may need to be extended east overnight tonight and may require another advisory Friday morning. Much of the forcing with the cold front will be located well north of the area as the front swings by but may be just enough to squeeze out a few showers (holding around 20% west of the Flint/Apalachicola rivers Sunday morning). Slightly cooler and drier air will be left in the wake of the front with highs in the 70s and 80s Sunday through Tuesday then a gradual moderating trend Wednesday with more widespread 80s returning. Fire concerns continue through the area with the ongoing drought and continued dry conditions. The next front appears to be a mostly dry frontal passage with a reinforcing shot of drier air on north to northeast winds. In fact, afternoon humidities may fall below 20% in spots Monday, which coupled with breezy winds and it sets the stage for high fire danger which may extend into Tuesday as well. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 643 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 LIFR/VLIFR conditions are prevailing at ECP/TLH/VLD this morning but will quickly improve to MVFR/VFR by 14/15z as the sun helps to scour out the fog. 10 knot south and southwest winds will prevail this afternoon. Another round of patchy fog and low ceilings is possible again late in the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 High pressure will dominate through the northeast Gulf waters into the weekend with light southerly breezes and 1-2 foot seas. Seabreezes will likely develop and push inland each afternoon. A cold front will pass through late this weekend, shifting the winds northeasterly/northerly. Behind the front, small craft advisories will likely be needed Sunday night through Tuesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The stretch of dry weather will continue with high pressure situated through the southeast US. MinRHs today through Saturday will generally be in the upper 20 to mid 30 percent range inland. High dispersions are expected today along and north of Highway 82 and on Saturday along and north of I-10 as afternoon mixing heights reach in excess of 6000 feet. A cold front will pass through the region on Sunday, shifting winds northerly and increasing transport winds to 15-20 mph. Minimum relative humidities following the front fall to critical values in the upper teens to low 20s percent range, increasing fire weather concerns for the start of the work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 219 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Little to no rain is expected for the next several days. Drought conditions will continue or worsen. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 88 58 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 80 63 81 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 85 60 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 87 60 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 89 59 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 87 57 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 77 62 77 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for FLZ007>015-108-112-114-115-326-426. GA...None. AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ065-068. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Scholl