FXUS64 KTSA 161119
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
619 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 612 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

 - Scattered showers and storms gradually wind down into Thursday morning.

 - Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues through Friday.

 - Additional thunderstorm chances, some potentially severe, are
   expected Friday into early Saturday with a cold front. Cooler
   and drier weather is anticipated early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

The severe weather that impacted the area this evening should
wind down the next few hours. With that said, a few more isolated
showers and non-severe thunderstorms could continue to develop
across portions of northeast OK into northwest Arkansas until
daybreak before it totally wraps up, riding along a convergent
boundary. Low clouds are expected to redevelop around daybreak,
lasting into late morning before clearing. Highs will reach the
upper 70s to mid 80s. Several CAMs show some isolated storms
popping up in the late afternoon or evening, though they disagree
on timing, location, and intensity. Without proper forcing this is
probably a less favored outcome, but wanted at least a mention of
storms as it is possible. If a storm did get going it could
become marginally severe. Otherwise, breezy southerly winds will
persist through the period with some gustiness in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Warm, humid, and breezy conditions will remain in place Friday as
the next storm system approaches the region. The large scale set up
is that a fairly deep trough will be moving from the western USA
towards the Plains. Meanwhile, a semi cut off low beneath the trough
will be moving in tandem towards the area. The southerly cut off low
will induce a subtropical jet along with plenty of warm and moist
advection. It will begin to merge more completely with the northerly
trough, with a very potent upper level jet forming. This jet will be
just northeast of the area by Friday evening with strong divergence
aloft in addition to the unusually elevated wind speeds. Meanwhile,
a cold front will be barreling into the area at the surface. Ahead
of the front, the low level jet will invigorate with its own
anomalously strong winds. The result will be a hodograph that is
both strongly curved in the lower levels and then very elongated in
the upper levels. This will occur with PWAT near 1.5" and MUCAPE
exceeding 2000 J/Kg.

It is sufficient to say that the ingredients will be in place for
severe weather to develop Friday afternoon into early Saturday.
Early CAM guidance shows two windows to watch. A few supercells may
develop along the dry line ahead of the cold front. These would have
the higher potential to be more significantly severe with all severe
hazard types. Then, a more consolidated line will form along the
cold front. This is when severe wind would be more likely along with
more widespread heavy rain. SPC and AI model guidance all pretty
much agree on the elevated severe weather potential. Hopefully as
more CAMs come into range in the next day some additional details
can be pinned down.

Behind the cold front it looks much cooler and drier for later
Saturday into early next week. Highs will fall into the 60s and 70s
with lows in the 30s and 40s. The next chance of storms may be next
Tuesday or so, but this is low confidence at this time. Highs could
return to the 80s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Low cloud has overspread the region this morning. Most cigs are
MVFR, but some areas of IFR do exist. Fog developed at KBVO while
it was clear, but the low cloud has moved in and will thus expect
an improvement in vsby and a continued low cig. Cigs are expected
to scatter out during the midday hours. The last several runs of
the HRRR are hinting at isolated storm potential near KFYV and
KFSM this afternoon. Added a PROB30 mention given consistent
signal.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  68  81  49 /  20  20  30  90
FSM   83  66  86  55 /  20  20  20  80
MLC   84  68  82  51 /  10  10  10  80
BVO   83  65  82  45 /   0  20  50  90
FYV   80  65  83  48 /  20  20  20  80
BYV   80  65  82  48 /  30  20  20  80
MKO   82  66  82  48 /  20  20  20  80
MIO   80  66  81  45 /  10  20  40  90
F10   84  67  82  48 /  20  20  20  80
HHW   82  65  82  53 /  10  10  10  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30