FXUS65 KTWC 160906
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
206 AM MST Thu Apr 16 2026

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will be near to slightly above
normal through Saturday, with highs warming to 4 to 7 degrees
above normal Sunday through early next week. Gusty southwest
winds are expected across all of southeast Arizona today, with
breezy southwest to west winds persisting to the east of Tucson
on Friday. Gusty east to southeast winds will occur Sunday into
Monday. Dry conditions will continue through at least early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Water vapor shows a closed low over the Pacific
Northwest and a weak shortwave off the west coast of Baja. The
low over the Pacific Northwest will dig south today and Friday
moving through the Great Basin, while the shortwave moves
through northern Mexico. The core of the trough is expected to
stay to the north in Utah. This system will be dry with the main
impact to sensible weather being another round of gusty
west/southwest winds this afternoon and Friday afternoon.
Expect speeds 12-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph. Winds will be most
widespread Thursday and east of Tucson on Friday. Near critical
fire weather conditions are expected east of Tucson today and
Friday afternoon, mainly in Greenlee, Graham and Cochise
counties. Temperatures will be a couple degrees above normal
today, then around normal Friday.

This weekend into early next week ridging will be in place over
the Intermountain West with a strong closed Pacific low sitting
off the West Coast. At the surface high pressure sets up over
the southern Plains, leading to a strong easterly pressure
gradient over southeast Arizona. This will translate into gusty
southeast winds for most of southeast Arizona Sunday into Monday
morning, especially in the Gila River Valley. This could lead
to critical fire weather conditions for portions of Graham
County Sunday. Thanks to the ridge temperatures will see a
warming trend becoming 4-7 degrees above normal Saturday into
early next week. Sunday looks to be the warmest day with Tucson
seeing around a 50 percent chance to hit 90 degrees.

Models bring the closed Pacific low onshore by mid to late next
week with the Euro faster and further north than the GEFS.
Depending on the evolution of this low southeast Arizona could
see another round of gusty southwest winds.

&

.AVIATION...Valid through 17/12Z.
High clouds will move in from the west this morning with skies
expected to be SCT-BKN AOA 20k ft AGL through most of the valid
period. SFC wind less than 10 kts and variable in direction
early this morning. Aft 16/17Z, increasing SFC winds with
SLY/SWLY winds at 12-18 kts and gusts to 20-28 kts by 16/19Z
and continuing thru 17/02. Thereafter winds less than 10 kts
again. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A Pacific storm system will move to our north today
and Friday, resulting in strong and gusty winds. RH values will
meet critical fire weather thresholds. However, wind speeds are
expected to remain below critical criteria, with near critical
fire weather conditions across the eastern half of southeast
Arizona (Greenlee, Graham and Cochise counties) today and
Friday. There may be an isolated location or two in these
eastern areas that meet Red Flag criteria for an hour or so mid
to late afternoon. Light winds then return on Saturday along
with single digit RH values. Gusty east-southeast winds (15-25
mph and gusts up to 40 mph) are forecast Sunday into Monday
morning. Wind speeds may be strong enough in the Gila River
Valley on Sunday to exceed critical fire weather conditions.
Minimum RH values Sunday and Monday will be in the 8-18 percent
range.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Hardin

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