FXUS06 KWBC 151932 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Wed April 15 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 21 - 25 2026 Today's numerical models depict complex 500-hPa flow across North America and the vicinity associated with a potential significant pattern shift. A main driver for this potential pattern shift is a very strong anomalous blocking ridge predicted southeast of Greenland at the start of the period. As time progresses, this ridge is expected to retrograde westward such that by day 10 above normal heights overspread most of the higher latitudes of North America. In response, persistent troughing is forecast over the Northeast and ridging over the Plains and Mississippi Valley early in the period is expected to weaken. Meanwhile, an anomalously strong trough over the southwestern CONUS is expected to slowly progress eastward with time. The eastward progression of this trough is expected to promote enhanced moisture inflow across the Mississippi Valley as time progresses. In the wake of this trough, heights are generally forecast to slowly rise across the Pacific Northwest, associated with anomalous ridging off the coast. Persistent cyclonic flow is forecast for much of Alaska, centered over the western part of the Mainland. Near normal heights and generally weak mid-level flow is forecast across Hawaii. Below normal temperatures are likely for much of Alaska due to persistent troughing. This trough has trended deeper across western portions of the Mainland, where below normal temperature probabilities exceed 50 percent. Near normal temperatures are favored downstream across the northwestern CONUS, as predicted height rises signal a potential transitional pattern from below normal temperatures early in the period to above normal temperatures late. Below normal temperatures remain favored across much of the southwestern CONUS as models are trending stronger today with the associated trough. A large area of elevated above normal temperature probabilities is predicted across the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and adjacent areas of the Ohio Valley and Southeast, due to predicted ridging early in the period. After a period of above normal temperatures early in the period, a noticeable cooldown is predicted across much of the Plains as time progresses. Below normal temperatures are favored for the Northeast, due to persistent troughing. Above normal temperatures are likely for Hawaii, associated with observed above normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific. The southern stream trough initially predicted over the southwestern CONUS is expected to be a major driver in the precipitation pattern across the CONUS. This trough has trended stronger in today's models, leading to a southward progression of enhanced above normal precipitation probabilities across much of California eastward to the central Great Basin. As this trough slowly progresses eastward, the flow is expected to become favorable for ample moisture advection from the Gulf across the Mississippi Valley. Probabilities of above normal precipitation exceed 50 percent across much of the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valleys and adjacent areas of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. A broader area of modestly enhanced above normal precipitation probabilities extends across most of the east-central CONUS from the Gulf Coast to the southern Great Lakes. Below normal precipitation is favored for parts of the Northeast, consistent with teleconnections from the anonymous trough predicted over Atlantic Canada. An active pattern is likely over most of Alaska due to persistent troughing. Probabilities of above normal precipitation exceed 50 percent across central areas of the South Coast and adjacent areas of the east-central Mainland, as an area of surface low pressure approaches from the west. Modestly enhanced probabilities of above normal precipitation are indicated for the Big Island of Hawaii with near normal precipitation favored for the remainder of the state underneath weak mid-level flow. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 35% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to a predicted transitional pattern later in the period. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 23 - 29 2026 By week-2, the transition to a negative AO/NAO pattern is expected to be well underway as above normal mid-level heights overspread most of the higher latitudes of North America. In response, remnant weak ridging early in the period over the east-central CONUS is forecast to dissipate. In its place, a strong trough over the southwestern CONUS is forecast to approach from the west, resulting in falling mid-level heights across much of the Plains and the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Meanwhile the trough near the Northeast is expected to be slow to move out and to persist for most, if not all, of the period. Farther to the west, anomalous ridging off the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to persist. Cyclonic flow is forecast to remain in place across much of Alaska, particularly across western portions of the state. Near normal mid-level heights are forecast for Hawaii and low-level flow is expected to be predominantly southeasterly. Below normal temperatures are likely to be locked in place across southwestern Alaska as cyclonic flow is forecast to persist. Probabilities of below normal temperatures exceed 50 percent across the southwestern Mainland. Enhanced probabilities of below normal temperatures are more modest for eastern areas of Alaska as daily model output indicated the potential for mid-level height rises later in the period. Above normal temperatures are favored for the Pacific Northwest and northern California due to nearby ridging forecast off the coast. Anomalous troughing farther to the south leads to increased chances of below normal temperatures across much of the Southwest. A modest tilt toward above normal temperatures is indicated ahead of this trough for parts of the Southeast, the lower half of the Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Southern Plains. Near normal temperatures are favored for a large swath of the country across the Rockies, Northern and Central Plains, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and much of the Mid-Atlantic, consistent with the predicted transitional pattern. Below normal temperatures are favored across most of the Northeast due to predicted troughing over southeastern Canada. Above normal temperatures are likely for Hawaii, associated with observed above normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific. An active pattern is forecast to persist well into week-2 across much of the Mississippi Valley, Plains, and Ohio Valley as enhanced moisture advection from the Gulf persists ahead of a trough forecast over the Southwest. This trough is expected to be anomalously strong, leading to elevated probabilities of above normal precipitation from Southern California northeastward to the Four Corners Region, despite the increasingly dry climatology across many of these areas this time of year. Above normal precipitation remains favored for most of Alaska due to persistent troughing over the southwestern Mainland. Conversely, the forecast leans dry across parts of northern New England, behind the trough predicted over southeastern Canada. A slight tilt toward above normal precipitation is indicated for Hawaii, consistent with yesterday's official forecast. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 35% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below Average, 2 out of 5, due to a predicted transitional pattern. FORECASTER: Scott H Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on April 16. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20020415 - 20200326 - 20210331 - 20030401 - 20210326 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20200325 - 20030401 - 20210330 - 20020417 - 20020412 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 21 - 25 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 23 - 29 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N N NEVADA N N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA N N IOWA N A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B B MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$