FNUS28 KWNS 152155
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

...Synopsis...
On Day 3/Friday, an amplifying trough will move into the central
U.S. as an associated mid-level speed max will intensify over the
central Plains. Tightening surface pressure gradients and a strong
cold front will promote a concentrated fire weather threat over the
southern Plains. Across the eastern U.S., a shortwave impulse will
aid in the upper ridge breakdown as the aforementioned trough
traverses the Midwest. As above normal temperatures prevail,
exceptionally dry fuels and occasional elevated winds will pose a
lingering fire weather threat throughout the East through the
weekend. Temporary ridging builds across the West on Day 4/Saturday
as post-frontal surface flow drives a dry and breezy airmass across
much of the High Plains and portions of the Southwest. On Day
5/Sunday-Day 6/Monday, the upper ridge slides east of the Rockies as
the upper trough exits eastern CONUS, promoting dry return flow over
the Plains and post frontal winds in the Southeast. Towards the end
of the forecast period, another deep trough is forecast to approach
western CONUS. While model discrepancy exists in the extended, fire
weather concerns will likely continue next week in regions that have
seen minimal precipitation.

...Portions of the Central/Southern Plains - Day 3/Friday through
Day 5/Sunday...
An amplified upper-level trough approaches the central CONUS on Day
3/Friday. The associated mid-level jet streak and deepening lee
surface troughing across the central Plains will aid in strong
west/southwest winds behind the persistent dry line. 70% Critical
probabilities have been trimmed slightly to account for quicker cold
frontal progression than previously forecast. Combined probabilities
of less than 15 percent RH and greater than 20 mph winds ahead of
the front should maintain a critical fire weather threat. An abrupt
wind shift of gusty northerly winds behind the aforementioned cold
front has the potential to impact any new or ongoing wildfires
through the evening hours.

On Day 4/Saturday, locally elevated fire weather conditions may
arise in a dry post-frontal airmass, though uncertainty in frontal
timing and overlap of stronger winds and lower RH precludes the
introduction of probabilities at this time. As the amplified upper
trough exits the region on Day 5/Sunday, surface troughing across
High Plains and surface high pressure centered over east TX will
promote dry return flow for much of the region. Given the overall
pattern and ensemble guidance agreement in low RH and stronger
winds, 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained.

...Mid-Atlantic/Piedmont/Southeast - Day 3/Friday through Day
5/Sunday...
As the East Coast upper ridge breaks down on Day 3/Friday, the
potential for a downslope wind event exists in the lee of the
Appalachians. West/northwesterly winds will traverse the Blue Ridge
Mountains allowing for surface RH to drop as surface winds increase
along the Piedmont, resulting in a continuation of 40% Critical
probabilities. On Day 4/Saturday, dry southwesterly flow returns to
the Piedmont and broader Southeast as the surface low enters
southern Ontario. With no expected precipitation across the region,
40% Critical probabilities have been maintained where dry and breezy
conditions continue atop exceptionally dry fuels. Chances for
precipitation increase on Day 5/Sunday as the upper trough moves
overhead, which could alleviate broader fire concerns. However, the
extent of wetting rainfall is uncertain, precluding the introduction
of probabilities at this time. On Day 6/Monday, post-frontal
northeasterly flow may increase fire weather concerns across the
Southeast as drought conditions worsen. However, uncertainty in
precipitation chances along the front on Day 5/Sunday preclude the
introduction of probabilities at this time.

As a secondary upper trough develops over the western U.S. on Day
6/Monday-Day 7/Tuesday, subsequent dry southerly flow over parts of
the Southwest and lee surface troughing across the High Plains will
continue broader fire weather concerns towards the end of the
forecast period.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/15/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$