WTPS11 NFFN 081200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 081355 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU CENTRE 982HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5S 178.3E
AT 081200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50
KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE
QUADRANT
                             AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE
QUADRANT
                             AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW
QUADRANT
                             AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW
QUADRANT.

EXPECT WINDS OVER ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE
QUADRANT
                             AND WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE
QUADRANT
                             AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW
QUADRANT
                             AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW
QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE REDUCED SIGNIFICANTLY AND SHEARED IN
THE PAST 12 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENT AREA
WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. CYCLONE LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHER SHEAR TOWARDS
THE SOUTH AND EVIDENCE OF DRY AIR INTRUSION. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YEILDS DT = 3.0/3.5,
MET=3.0 AND PT=3.0.
FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.5/W1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THIS SYSTEM IN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
WITH FURTHER WEATHEKING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 26.0S 178.7E MOV S AT 06 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 27.1S 178.9E MOV S AT 06 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 28.2S 178.9E MOV S AT 06 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 29.5S 178.3E MOV S AT 06 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE VAIANU.