FXAK68 PAFC 160227
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
627 PM AKDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Saturday afternoon)...

Overall forecast picture remains on track, though there have been
some changes to the finer details. Generally expect the cloudier,
wetter, and more unsettled pattern to continue, with mostly mild
impacts. The biggest hazard we're monitoring is the potential for
long duration light snow along the Richardson Highway towards Isabel
Pass, with snow amounts on the order of 6+ inches over the course
of 1-2 days.

There's also uncertainty regarding an upper level trough and
associated surface low moving near Eastern Kenai Peninsula from
tomorrow into Friday. While this storm is fairly weak, model
differences in the speed and track of this system are leading to
lower forecast confidence regarding wind speeds and precipitation
timing/amounts, especially for the Cook Inlet corridor from
Kachemak Bay north into Anchorage and Mat Valley.

-KC

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3:)...

A weak low pressure system in the northern Bering is promoting
widespread rain/snow showers over much of the marine areas,
including the Pribilof Islands this afternoon. This will push into
the Southwest coastline this evening, leading to widespread
precipitation across the southwestern mainland. Precipitation will
be largely snowfall from Togiak north, and a rain/snow mix or
plain rain from Dillingham south. Precipitation will linger in
this area through Friday afternoon.

A strong North Pacific low rises into the Western Aleutians on
Friday. Storm-force winds as well as heavy mixed precipitation
and rainfall are expected to impact the from Atka to Shemya. With
the low center expected to cross the Aleutians near the Dateline,
communities near Adak will see a stronger southerly winds, while
Shemya will see strong northerly winds. The low will move
northeastward through the Bering, spreading a large swath of
precipitation over the weekend. Gale force winds will spread
eastward, approaching Unalaska as well as the Pribilof Islands by
early Friday evening. A small period of blowing snow may impact
the Pribilof Islands early Saturday before temperatures warm.
There are still uncertainties regarding the exact strength and
track of this low, so changes in the forecast are likely as the
low approaches.

-CL/JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

An active pattern persists Saturday through Tuesday. An
unseasonably strong North Pacific storm will have crossed into the
Bering Sea on Friday, bringing heavy rain and storm-force winds
to the Aleutian Chain as far east as Unalaska; meanwhile,
precipitation continues across Southcentral Alaska, maintaining
cloudy skies and precipitation through Saturday (some areas may
see a short respite late Saturday).

By Sunday and into Monday, the low in the Bering Sea will merge
into the broad low-pressure system anchored over Mainland Alaska,
pulling cooler air back into the region from the north and
spreading moderate precipitation across Southcentral;
precipitation will likely change into a rain-snow mix across
southern Alaska. While specific timing remains unclear at this
time, the overall pattern suggests continued unsettled weather
for both Southcentral and Southwest Alaska with temperatures
likely dropping below seasonal averages.

AB

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light snow will gradually wind down after 02-03Z this
afternoon with visibilities improving; however, a few isolated
showers will linger into the overnight hours. Ceilings will also
improve to MVFR/VFR by this evening and continue through early
afternoon Thur before decreasing as precipitation works back into
the region.

&&


$$