FOCN45 CWWG 121900
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT SUNDAY APRIL
12 2026.

ALERTS IN EFFECT...YELLOW WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR IQALUIT, KIMMIRUT,
KINNGAIT, CORAL HARBOUR, SANIRAJAK, IGLOOLIK, NAUJAAT, KUGAARUK,
CHESTERFIELD INLET, AND RANKIN INLET. BLIZZARD WARNINGS TO COME WITH
AFTERNOON ISSUE.

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT THIS MORNING, THE POLAR VORTEX CONTINUES TO
SIT ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC WITH ITS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
INFLUENCING MOST OF CANADA'S ARCTIC REGION. LONG-WAVE TROUGHS EXTEND
TO ITS SOUTH, CROSSING SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND TO NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR AND TO ITS SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PRAIRIES. SAT PIX
SHOW A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE IN THIS TROUGH TRACKING EAST OVER NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. TO THE WEST OF THE POLAR VORTEX, AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH YUKON INTO NORTHERN ALASKA.
IN THE SOUTH, AN UPPER LOW SITS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, EMBEDDED IN
A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH THAT SITS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ASCENDS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PRAIRIES AND TURNS ZONAL ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. SAT PIX SHOW A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LIFTING TOWARDS THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS REGION THIS MORNING.

AT THE SURFACE, A 996 MB LOW SITS OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWEST AND A WARM FRONT DRAPED EAST-SOUTHEAST. NORTH OF THIS, A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO SOUTHERN
ALBERTA, THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM SW SASKATCHEWAN TO NORTHERN
MANITOBA BEFORE THEN ARCING SOUTHEAST THROUGH ONTARIO. A 1016 MB HIGH
SITS OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA. IN THE ARCTIC, A 1011 MB LOW SITS NEAR
NAUJAAT, NU; IT SITS ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS
DRAPED FROM THE ARCTIC OCEAN SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NWT/NU BORDER AND
INTO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BEFORE CURLING BACK NORTH TO BAFFIN BAY.
LASTLY, RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE POLAR REGION SOUTH THROUGH THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC ARCHIPELAGO.

DISCUSSION...

WESTERN PRAIRIES...A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE TODAY, WITH A COLD
FRONT LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THE FRONT HAS STALLED NORTH OF
CALGARY AND IS DROPPING MODERATE SNOW IN A BAND FROM THE ROCKIES TO
DRUMHELLER NORTH OF THE CITY. 3 CM HAVE BEEN RECORDED IN THE CITY,
THOUGH WEBCAMS SUGGEST SOMEWHAT LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND WEBCAMS AND ROAD
REPORTS DON'T SHOW THE SNOW STICKING TO PAVEMENT YET.
WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR ZERO, AND A HIGH SUN ANGLE, WE
SUSPECT SLRS ARE 10:1 OR LESS. LOCAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 CM HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST OVER AND AROUND CALGARY. SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN.

EASTERN PRAIRIES...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
MANITOBA AS THE SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TRACKS EAST.
SUPPORTED BY THE SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OVER THE WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MANITOBA, A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. A FURTHER 5 TO 10 CM WILL FALL ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MANITOBA, EAST OF THOMPSON THROUGH THE GILLAM AND
SHAMATTAWA REGIONS AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.

ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO NORTHERN MANITOBA ON TUESDAY
WITH ANOTHER 4 TO 8 CM POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NORTHERNMOST COMMUNITIES
AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

IN THE SOUTH ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA, SPREADING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE PROVINCE AND SPREADING EAST AND NORTH AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. LOCALIZED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 MM ARE
LIKELY WITH TODAY'S SHOWERS AND THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSHOWER, BUT NO
ORGANIZED RISK EXISTS TODAY.

A COUPLE MORE DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS OF
THE UNITED STATES THIS WEEK, BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHERN PRAIRIES ON TUESDAY AND THEN A BROADER CHANCE OF RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

EASTERN ARCTIC...THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE EASTERN ARCTIC WILL BE
THE MATURATION OF THE NORTH DAKOTA LOW-PRESSURE COMPLEX AS IT LIFTS
THROUGH ONTARIO AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN ARCTIC AS IT BECOMES
CAPTURED BY THE POLAR VORTEX.

A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE SNOW WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH HUDSON BAY AND
QUEBEC TOWARDS BAFFIN ISLAND ON MONDAY, SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE ISLAND AND WRAPPING WEST TOWARDS THE MELVILLE PENINSULA
AND THE NORTHERN KIVALLIQ. EVENT-TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL SIT IN THE 5 TO
10 CM RANGE FOR MOST AREAS THAT RECEIVE SNOW, BUT LOCALIZED
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 CM WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SNOW SHOULD BE
PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, WITH COMMUNITIES LIKELY
SEEING 12 TO 24 HOURS OF NOTABLE SNOWFALL.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL THAN THE SNOWFALL WILL BE THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS ITS CENTRAL PRESSURE DEEPENS FROM AROUND 995 MB
ENTERING SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON SUNDAY EVENING TO AROUND 974 MB OVER
SOUTHAMPTON ISLAND ON MONDAY EVENING, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE KIVALLIQ AND SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND.

FOR BAFFIN ISLAND, STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ON MONDAY, INCREASING TO 60 GUSTING 90 KM/H FOR MANY PLACES.
KINNGAIT MAY EVEN HAVE GUSTS THAT EXCEED 100 KM/H. COMBINED WITH THE
SNOW, THIS WILL PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THAT SPREAD FROM KINNGAIT
AND KIMMIRUT NORTH TO IQALUIT AND POTENTIALLY PANGNIRTUNG.
THE BLIZZARD WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

FOR THE KIVALLIQ, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 60 GUSTING 90 KM/H
WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN MOST
COMMUNITIES BY THE EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH
OF TUESDAY FOR THE KIVALLIQ REGIONS AND THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON
WEDNESDAY.

FURTHER NORTH OVER THE MELVILLE PENINSULA, WINDS WILL BE WEAKER WITH
EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 50 GUSTING 70 KM/H; THIS SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE SNOW FALLING
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP MID-DAY OR LATER ON
MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING.

CENTRAL ARCTIC...A TROUGH AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND BUILDING
HIGH OVER THE BEAUFORT WILL BRING A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY GRADIENT TO
GJOA HAVEN TONIGHT. SOME NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME BLOWING SNOW TO THE COMMUNITY WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40 KM/H OR A LITTLE LESS. LOCAL SNOW ON GROUND
REPORTS FROM THE AREA DO NOT INDICATE MUCH LOOSE SNOW IN THE AREA, SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW OR NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO THE COMMUNITY HOWEVER, LOCALIZED AREAS AROUND THE
COMMUNITY MAY EXPERIENCE SOME POOR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.

AS THE LOW LOOPS NORTHWESTWARD AND MATURES, SOME LIGHT SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY OVERNIGHT IN KUGAARUK.
WITH PLENTIFUL LOOSE SNOW ON THE GROUND, AND NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING
TO 60 KM/H, THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT KUGAARUK. THINKING IS A BLIZZARD WARNING
WILL BE FORTHCOMING FOR THAT COMMUNITY FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TALOYOAK IS
NOT SO PRONE TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN NORTHERLY WINDS, BUT THERE'S
SOME CONCERN FOR GJOA HAVEN, WHERE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE NOW
FORECAST OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

NWT...A BAROCLINIC ZONE STILL REMAINS OVER THE MACKENZIE VALLEY SO
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH NEGLIGIBLE AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN ON MONDAY AND
BRING A FEW CM OF SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MACKENZIE RIVER REGIONS.

END/VROLIJK/CARLSEN/BATE/GREENHOUGH