FXUS64 KAMA 151138
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
638 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

-Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected
 Wednesday through Friday for the majority of the combined
 Panhandles.

-Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible for the far eastern
 combined Panhandles on Friday.

-Low temperatures Friday and Saturday night may drop to at or
 below freezing for portions of the northern combined Panhandles.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

We continue to watch a few very light rain showers for the far
eastern Texas Panhandle out ahead of the main dryline. Overall
coverage will diminish through the overnight period. Otherwise,
continuing warm and dry conditions for the Panhandles throughout
the short term forecast period. Specifics in the fire weather
conditions can be read further in the fire weather discussion of
the AFD. Overall through for Wednesday, a lull in the main H500
height gradient will relax winds a bit. However, relatively poor
RH recovery from the previous night will still result in more
widespread elevated fire weather conditions, coupled with slightly
cooler temps behind a weak cold front that should stall in the
northern Panhandles Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures on
Wednesday will range from the lower 70s in the NW Panhandles to
upper 80s in the far SE TX Panhandle. Dry and warm conditions are
expected to continue for Thursday with the next central Rockies
system moving east, this should help steepen the main H500
gradient for the western Panhandles for breezy conditions to
return. Otherwise, warm and dry with highs on Thursday ranging
from the lower 80s in the western Panhandles to lower 90s in the
eastern Panhandles.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Depending on the timing of surface features coming together, the
potential is there for some thunderstorms in the far eastern
combined Panhandles for Friday. If areas out ahead of the incoming
cold front, along with a slower moving dryline could tap into
decent MUCAPE and 0-6k bulk shear values around 40 kts for a brief
window Friday afternoon, strong to severe storms for the eastern
TX Panhandle cannot be completely ruled out. Most guidance however
supports more critical fire weather conditions to return to the
majority of the Panhandles on Friday. Behind the main cold front
on Friday, much cooler temperatures near to below average for mid
April will filter in for the coming weekend. In fact, overnight
temperatures may get at or slightly below freezing from Friday
night and Saturday night. Make sure to check back for updates to
the forecast, especially those starting their growing season
activities. Temperatures should return to above average towards
the end of the forecast period as southwesterly surface winds
return.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

VFR conditions and generally light winds are expected at all sites
for the next 24 hours. KAMA may experience sustained winds up to
15 kts this afternoon, but winds will become light again by the
evening.

Rangel

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow for the
majority of the Panhandles with critical fire weather conditions
are expected Thursday and Friday. With critical fire weather
conditions expected on Thursday and Friday, min RH values will be
as low as 7 to 9 percent. With breezy southwesterly winds, max
RFTI for both days will range from 5 to 7, with highest values in
the western combined Panhandles. ERC percentile will range from
the 80th to just over the 90th percentile across all the
Panhandles, illustrating the unfortunate setup of abundant fuels
for these critical conditions. Will have to watch closely on
Friday. If the cold front comes through the Panhandles faster,
overall duration of conditions will be much less compared to
Thursday.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for TXZ001>014-016>018-317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...55