FNUS71 KBUF 141238 FWSBUF Spot Forecast for Potomac South...usfs National Weather Service Buffalo NY 838 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on April 14. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Low pressure will pass to the north of the region today, with a warm and moderately humid airmass supporting a few showers and thunderstorms. There will be plenty of rain free time today, but the chance of spotty showers and a few thunderstorms will be present throughout the day. The best chance of rain will likely be around late morning to midday and again late afternoon. A moderately humid airmass is in place by April standards, with minimum relative humidity values only dropping into the 55 to 60 percent range today. A light to moderate southwest breeze will continue today. Any thunderstorms over or near the burn location may produce sudden changes in wind direction and higher gusts. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70 percent). Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms late in the morning, then showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......70 percent. Max temperature.....Around 72. Min humidity........66 percent. Eye level winds.....West winds 8 to 11 mph becoming around 9 mph late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 28 mph. 20 foot wind........Southwest winds 12 to 16 mph becoming west around 14 mph late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 28 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......Max 2800 ft agl. Transport winds.....Southwest 17 to 26 mph increasing to 26 to 28 mph late in the afternoon. Dispersion index....Max 67 (good). Rainfall amount.....0.11 inches. TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).............60 74 80 70 60 64 67 63 Weather cov.........CHC CHC LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC Weather type........RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov............SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC Chc of pcpn (%).....40 30 70 40 30 40 40 30 Temp................64 67 69 70 70 72 71 71 RH..................81 73 68 68 68 66 66 66 20 ft wind dir......S S SW SW SW SW W W 20 ft wind spd......12 13 14 15 16 16 15 14 20 ft wind gust.....18 19 20 22 22 22 21 20 Eye lvl wnd dir.....S S SW SW SW SW W W Eye lvl wnd spd.....8 8 9 10 11 11 10 9 Eye lvl wnd gst.....13 14 15 17 17 17 16 15 Mix hgt (kft).......1.2 1.8 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.1 Transp wind dir.....SW SW SW SW SW SW W W Transp wind spd.....17 20 22 25 26 28 28 26 Dispersion idx......18 31 44 59 64 67 60 48 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55 percent) then becoming partly cloudy (45 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (70 percent). Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the evening. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the evening, then chance of rain showers early in the morning. Chance of pcpn......30 percent. Min temperature.....Around 58. Max humidity........96 percent. Eye level winds.....South winds up to 8 mph with gusts to around 14 mph becoming around 5 mph after 3 am. 20 foot wind........West winds around 13 mph with gusts to around 18 mph becoming south 7 to 8 mph after 3 am. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the evening. Mixing height.......Min 100 ft agl. Transport winds.....West 14 to 23 mph decreasing to 8 to 12 mph in the late evening and overnight. Dispersion index....Min 0 (poor). Rainfall amount.....0.09 inches. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).............61 61 51 50 42 57 64 68 80 77 58 70 Weather cov.........SCH SCH CHC Weather type........RW RW RW Tstm cov............SCH SCH Chc of pcpn (%).....20 10 10 10 20 10 10 10 0 10 10 30 Temp................70 67 65 64 63 62 61 61 60 60 60 59 RH..................68 75 78 84 84 87 90 87 93 93 93 96 20 ft wind dir......W W W W W W W SW SW SW S S 20 ft wind spd......13 12 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 8 20 ft wind gust.....18 17 14 14 14 13 12 11 11 11 11 12 Eye lvl wnd dir.....W W W W W W W W SW S S S Eye lvl wnd spd.....8 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 Eye lvl wnd gst.....14 13 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 Mix hgt (kft).......1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Transp wind dir.....W W W W W W W W SW SW SW SW Transp wind spd.....23 18 14 12 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 Dispersion idx......30 13 4 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .WEDNESDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (85 percent). Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Showers through the day. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......80 percent. Max temperature.....Around 73. Min humidity........68 percent. Eye level winds.....West winds 6 to 8 mph with gusts to around 14 mph becoming 6 to 7 mph with gusts to around 13 mph late in the afternoon. 20 foot wind........Southwest winds 9 to 13 mph with gusts to around 18 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the morning. Mixing height.......Max 3100 ft agl. Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 18 mph becoming west 18 to 24 mph late in the morning. Dispersion index....Max 65 (good). Rainfall amount.....0.13 inches. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).............82 75 84 84 84 84 86 88 90 90 90 90 Weather cov.........CHC SCH DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF Weather type........RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov............ SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC Chc of pcpn (%).....30 20 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 Temp................60 60 61 63 65 66 68 70 71 72 72 71 RH..................93 93 93 87 84 84 78 73 71 68 71 73 20 ft wind dir......S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W 20 ft wind spd......9 9 10 10 12 12 13 13 13 12 10 9 20 ft wind gust.....13 14 16 16 16 17 18 18 18 18 17 14 Eye lvl wnd dir.....SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W Eye lvl wnd spd.....6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 Eye lvl wnd gst.....10 11 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 13 13 11 Mix hgt (kft).......0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.1 2.8 3.1 2.8 2.2 1.5 Transp wind dir.....SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W Transp wind spd.....10 13 15 17 18 21 23 24 24 23 21 18 Dispersion idx......0 0 0 6 13 25 42 59 65 56 40 24 $$ Forecaster...JJR Requested by...erickson Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2610270.0/BUF .DELDT 04/14/26 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL jeremy.erickson@usda.gov