FXUS65 KBYZ 150847 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 247 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy winds along the western foothills today. - Storm system Tonight into Friday: Widespread rain transitioning to snow over the lower elevations Thursday. Uncertainty in snow totals for the foothills and lower elevations remains. - Moderate to heavy snow for all mountains. - Warmer and Dry this Weekend. && .UPDATE... Quick update to add a Wind Advisory for the Livingston area and Beartooth foothills, in effect through this evening. Current observations show wind gusts in the 50s to 60s around the Livingston area, with pressure gradients overachieving. Have updated the wind forecast through this evening. The remainder of the forecast is on track. STP && .DISCUSSION... Through Tuesday... There is still a decent amount of model discrepancies around the trough moving ashore off of the Pacific. Most models are showing some type of split to the feature, however, how much split remains the question. Some runs show a true split where there is one upper level low in SK and another along the WY/CO border. Other runs are showing more of an elongated area of vorticity between SK and WY which would give more forcing to our CWA. Today will still have high temperatures above average for a good portion of the region as the precipitation is not forecast to move into the CWA in ernest until early evening west of Billings and overnight farther east. Widespread 60s are forecast with some locations near and just east of Billings potentially touching 70F. In addition to the warm temperatures, some gusty winds in the low 50 mph range are possible around Livingston and Big Timber. While the low levels will be well mixed ahead of the trough, the 700mb winds only reach the 40 kt range in most models. That being said, a stray gust up to 60 mph cannot be ruled out due to terrain enhancement, however, there is a low chance (30%). With the energy advecting into western MT by 00z this evening showers are forecast to start over western portions of the CWA between noon and 6pm MDT today with some snow starting in the Absaroka/Beartooths a little earlier. Rain will gradually spread eastwards overnight. While there is still some disagreement regarding the FROPA Thursday, there is a better consensus now that it will enter the CWA sometime early Thursday AM and reach Billings before noon. The models lagging the most push the front through Miles City and Sheridan by early afternoon. Behind the cold front temperatures are expected to fall rapidly. Highs for the Thursday and Friday are forecast to be 10 F below average across the region. With these rapidly cooling temps, snow levels will also quickly descend. Although the front arrival is earlier, so is the exit of the precip. This means that there has not been too much meaningful change in snowfall or precip totals with the highest amounts still closest to mountains. The biggest question with the Thursday evening period is the surface wind direction. Some models want to bring in more of a north-northeast wind a few hours after the FROPA which would be good upslope enhancement for all of the typical sites. Other model runs keep the winds primarily out of the NW. This is the main reason for such wide ranges of potential snowfall in the foothills. Livingtson's 10-90th is 1-6", Red Loge 1-11" and Story, WY 3-12". Unfortunately, it will likely not be until right when the winds are forecast to potentially flip before we have a true grasp on whether or not meaningful upslope will occur. Due to this, if you have interests in the foothills or plan to travel along I-90 through Livingston, MT or Sheridan, WY Thursday and Friday, be sure to pay close attention to the weather. There is now some hints of a potential mountain wave into the Red Lodge area early Thursday morning just before the cold front pushes through. Winds in the 700-500mb layer will be out of the SW between 50-70kts. While all models show some subsidence, the GFS is the most bullish. As with all mountain wave events there is a high degree of uncertainty, however, there is the possibility for some strong winds Thursday into Red Lodge and surrounding areas. As for the east side of the Bighorns (Dayton, WY) there is a small chance (20%) that some mountain wave activity occurs prior to sunrise Thursday but the 700mb wind direction may be too southwesterly. The good news for folks with outdoor plans this weekend is that we have a warm and dry weekend in store. Behind the trough, ridging quickly builds in which will allow temps to rebound to near average Saturday and above average again by Sunday. Most of the Region will be feeling temps in the mid to upper 60s again by Sunday afternoon. It is worth noting that if we are able to accumulate a decent amount of snow in the foothills then all of this snow will rapidly melt this weekend. Moving into the start of next week there is another chance for more precipitation and cooler weather. In fact, the active pattern is expected to persist through much of the rest of the month. WMR .AVIATION... While winds may decrease near KLVM into the morning, look for gusty southwest to west winds to increase once again today. These gusty winds will also impact K6S0 and KHWQ during the day today. Late today into Thursday, a cold front is expected to move through the area. Ahead of this front, isolated to scattered showers are forecast over and near the mountains of south-central and western Montana this afternoon and evening. A few weak thunderstorms are possible over the west (20% chance) during the afternoon and evening. As the cold front brings widespread rain/snow into Thursday, conditions will deteriorate towards MVFR to IFR. Mountain obscurations will increase this afternoon into tonight over the west. STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 068 038/046 025/047 027/059 035/069 042/075 043/076 1/B 58/W 34/J 20/U 00/U 01/B 12/W LVM 060 029/038 020/041 022/055 030/064 037/070 040/071 5/W 99/J 57/J 30/U 00/U 01/B 12/W HDN 071 038/048 025/049 024/059 028/070 037/077 043/077 1/B 48/W 44/J 21/U 00/U 01/U 11/U MLS 070 040/049 023/043 022/054 028/067 039/075 043/074 1/B 34/W 31/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 4BQ 069 041/053 024/042 019/052 028/066 038/074 043/074 0/U 14/W 62/J 11/U 00/U 00/U 01/U BHK 069 038/054 022/039 018/049 025/064 036/071 040/070 0/U 12/W 52/J 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U SHR 067 034/047 021/039 019/050 025/064 034/072 038/073 0/B 29/W 86/J 31/U 00/U 00/B 12/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Wind Advisory in effect until 10 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONES 65-66. Winter Storm Warning in effect from noon today to 6 AM MDT Friday FOR ZONES 67-68. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings