FXUS61 KCLE 151159 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 759 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The previous forecast largely remains on track with multiple rounds of thunderstorms (some severe) and heavy rain expected through Thursday and again on Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Multiple rounds of severe weather are possible through Thursday with another round of convection possible Saturday as the active pattern continues. All severe weather hazards are possible. 2) Repeated rounds of moderate to heavy rain are likely through early Thursday. A Flood Watch remains in effect for Northwest Ohio, where confidence in flooding is highest. 3) Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday before cooler temperatures return Sunday into early next week. Frost/freeze headlines may be needed for Ohio counties Sunday night and Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Multiple rounds of convection are expected through Wednesday as a frontal boundary wavers to the north of the local area. Additional storms are likely as an upper trough axis moves across the area late Thursday with another round of storms likely as a stronger cold front approaches from the west on Saturday. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with each round of convection. See the following breakdown below for more details: Today: The first round of convection is currently moving into the local area. The warm, moist flow and LLJ could support convective maintenance on the southern flank of the line for at least the next few hours, although the shear environment is less optimal across the local area. All convective hazards will be on the table but damaging wind gusts will definitely be the primary concern with a few tornadic spin-ups possible on the leading edge of the line. CAMs suggest that storms will weaken as they move across the area, which would likely result in boundaries left behind that will serve as a focus for convective initiation/enhancement later today. Similar to Tuesday, multiple rounds of scattered thunderstorms are possible throughout the day today with stronger convection possible later this afternoon into this evening. The deep, moist flow will allow for efficient destabilization this afternoon with MLCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg and deep shear values of 40+ knots anticipated. This would support organized convection and potential for another round of strong to severe storms with all hazards (especially damaging winds) possible. That said, given the reliance on mesoscale features for forcing, confidence in the exact timing and placement of storms is medium at best. There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe weather across the entire area today. Thursday: Upper level support will be a bit better on Thursday the frontal boundary finally pushes southeast as a weak cold front. Scattered showers/storms remain possible in the warm air advection regime Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon with more organized convection likely with the front later Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat, but hail and a few tornadoes can't be ruled out considering the wind field. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across the entire local area. Saturday: A brief respite in showers and thunderstorm chances is anticipated on Friday, however yet another round of storms (possibly strong to severe) will return as the next cold front, which will be stronger than Thursday's, approaches. Given moist return flow ahead of the front, all severe hazards are possible. KEY MESSAGE 2... Regardless of the severity of storms, very heavy rainfall with rates of at least 1-2 inches is likely with any thunderstorms given PWAT values of 1.25-2 inches in place across the area. There's some potential for training with the line of stronger storms moving into the area this morning and localized flooding will be possible for the first several hours of the forecast period. At the very least, this early morning convection will serve as yet another primer for additional heavy rainfall in thunderstorms later today into tonight. There are still concerns for backbuilding and/or training late today as storm motion becomes more parallel to the frontal boundary to the north. Widespread rainfall totals between this morning and Thursday will be between 1-2 inches (generally along and north of US Route 30), although locally higher amounts of at least 2-4 inches are possible, especially across Northwest Ohio where the Flood Watch is in effect. Flooding concerns are highest for the more responsive/flashy waterways and typical poor drainage/urban areas. Outside of Northwest Ohio, the location of the highest QPF values and the resulting highest flooding risk remain uncertain given relatively low confidence in the exact placement of thunderstorms. KEY MESSAGE 3... Persistent warm air advection will result in well above normal temperatures through Saturday. Instead of normal lower 60s for highs, highs will be in the 70s with lower 80s possible in areas that experience any clearing today. Cooler temperatures will likely materialize in the event of persistent cloud cover and precipitation. It will also be quite muggy thanks to dew points in the lower 60s. Temperatures will temporarily moderate to below normal values in the 50s Sunday and Monday, but guidance favors a warming trend by the middle of next week. The growing season has officially started for Ohio counties and frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed as temperatures tank into the lower 30s and possibly upper 20s on Sunday night. Additional headlines may be needed across Northeast Ohio on Monday night. && .AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... There is very low confidence aviation forecast through Thursday morning. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today across the airspace. To start, scattered showers are present near Lake Erie and will filter in and out of KTOL and KERI. New showers and storms will develop to the southwest this afternoon and move northeast across the terminals. Storms could be as early as 18z/2PM in NW OH or could be well delayed as late as 00z/8PM. Have gone with some combination of the HRRR and 3km NAM for storm timing right now, but this will need to be reassessed throughout the day. Additional storms could redevelop this evening or overnight depending on the timing of the first round of convection. Winds will be variable to start with a outflow boundary across the area but winds will eventually settle on a south to southwest direction with this boundary lifting back north. Outlook...Periods of non-VFR conditions are expected in showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Additional non-VFR possible in showers and storms on Saturday. && .MARINE... A broken line of thunderstorms will cross Lake Erie early this morning and could be strong to severe. Thunderstorms will act to disrupt winds which could shift around to the northwest for a period of time. Winds will switch back around to the southwest on Wednesday at 10-20 knots with additional strong thunderstorms possible. Low pressure will track east across the Central Great Lakes on Thursday, with southwest winds veering to the northwest behind a cold front Thursday night. Southwest winds develop out of the southeast on Saturday and veer to southwesterly at 15-20 knots. Winds will be elevated at 20-25 knots behind the cold front Saturday night and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed heading into Sunday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ003-006>009-018- 019. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...10