FZUS81 KCLE 111754 ICEGL GREAT LAKES ICE BREAK-UP OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 153 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026 ...Maximum Ice Coverage for the 2025-2026 season was average to slightly above average on the whole... As we head out of winter and into spring over the next couple of weeks, generally expecting a typical transition out of ice season with highly variable weather patterns typical of the mid March through mid April time frame. Melting rates will be variable as a result, but ice coverage will consistently continue to decrease with the exception of a late Arctic air burst early next week where a day or two of thin shore ice may reappear across the northern Great Lakes region. There are no strong signals either way in the Climate Prediction Center 3-4 week outlooks for above or below normal temperatures during that time span issued last week. Recent mild conditions over the past two weeks have supported melting on all of the lakes, while increasing daylight hours and increasing sun angles also work hard against any additional ice formation. The 2025-2026 ice season was characterized by a weak La Nina event which will be transitioning to neutral conditions over the next couple of months. There were two main weather stories to this past season, during the late fall and winter time frame. The first was very windy conditions and early cold this late fall into winter from Thanksgiving to Christmas, and the second was a period of consistent deep cold that spanned from mid January through mid February with almost no breaks in terms of above freezing temperatures. The early cold removed the warm season heat from the lakes fairly efficiently, but the windy conditions, once the heat was removed, acted as a slight inhibitor to ice formation early on in the season. In the end, the net result was an average start time for significant ice formation on the Great Lakes. The deep cold that followed in mid January resulted in Lake Erie freezing almost entirely, peaking around 95 percent in February. Lake Huron also achieved significant coverage, peaking at just under 80 percent, and Lake Superior had a peak of just over 50 percent. There was a late resurgence of coverage into early March of 2026. Overall, the Great Lakes ice coverage peaked around 58 percent in a couple of daily spikes, but the average of those peak numbers were in the low-50s percent range. Looking back at the winter season, for January and February, Great Lakes locations were, on average, 3-7F below normal for each month. February was more mixed with the southern Great Lakes below normal for the entire month around 1-3F with the exception of southern Lake Michigan, and the northern Great Lakes above normal around 1-4F. The current status of the Great Lakes as of March 11th is total ice coverage stands at approximately 21 percent, and is on the downward trend. The first third of the month of March has been well above normal in terms of temperatures, but this will change with a more highly variable pattern through the next ten days and heading into the end of March. This includes the aforementioned late season Arctic airmass during the first part of next week with at least a couple days of below freezing temperatures. Do not expect any significant ice formation or expansion during this time, however. Significant ice remains in places like (but not limited to) the eastern basin of Lake Erie, and fast ice in the Straits of Mackinac and Whitefish Bay. FREEZING DEGREE DAY ACCUMULATIONS AT SELECTED STATIONS COMPARED TO NORMAL CALCULATED ON Tue Mar 10: LOCATION DATE NORMAL CURRENT ---------------------------------------- DULUTH, MN MAR 9 1739 1811 MARQUETTE, MI MAR 9 1523 1537 SAU_S_MAR, MI MAR 9 1235 1385 GREENBAY, WI MAR 9 999 1048 MILWAUKEE, WI MAR 9 460 589 CHICAGO, IL MAR 9 332 322 MUSKEGON, MI MAR 9 317 489 ALPENA, MI MAR 9 915 1035 DETROIT, MI MAR 9 339 506 TOLEDO, OH MAR 9 185 487 CLEVELAND, OH MAR 9 84 356 BUFFALO, NY MAR 9 427 722 NORMAL TEMPS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES FOR Tue Mar 10 LOCATION HIGH LOW ---------------------------------------------- DULUTH,MN 34 16 MARQUETTE,MI 34 17 GREENBAY,WI 40 21 MILWAUKEE,WI 42 26 CHICAGO,IL 46 28 MUSKEGON,MI 42 26 ALPENA,MI 38 18 DETROIT,MI 45 27 TOLEDO,OH 46 27 CLEVELAND,OH 46 28 BUFFALO,NY 42 25 When ice exists extensively in the rivers, flushing of the ice normally begins the first week of March. The Straits of Mackinac and the St. Marys River usually see their last ice in mid to late April. This will be the last ice product issued for the 2025-2026 ice season. Special thanks to the US National Ice Center for their coordination this season. The next freeze-up outlook for the upcoming 2026-2027 winter season will be issued during the first week of November and will be issued every two weeks until ice begins to develop on the Great Lakes. $$ Marsalek