FXUS63 KEAX 151133 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 633 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...12z Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... * Active weather pattern continues with multiple additional chances for strong to severe thunderstorms, today/Wednesday and Friday. - Today/Wednesday: SPC Day 1 Slight Risk - Friday: SPC Day 3 Enhanced Risk * Warm temperatures (upper 70s to low/mid 80s) are expected to persist through the work week, then cooler and drier conditions expected this weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 What looked to be a fairly potent setup for strong to severe storms in the area yesterday evening and into the overnight tended to struggle mightily. By the evening, moisture rapidly surged northward toward and into portions of Nebraska and Iowa and the dryline rapidly retreated westward. Further SW, convective initiation ended up quite a bit further south (well into Oklahoma) than prior expectations. With the otherwise overall lack of synoptic level support/lift, this resulted in initial clusters of strong to severe storms over Nebraska/Iowa that just clipped northern Missouri and little to no precipitation into southern portions of the CWA with trajectories keeping activity into Springfield's area. This through about 3am. As of this writing, elevated non-severe convection continues to drift eastward across northern Missouri, with no expectation for anything more. Additionally, elevated convection is now seen blossoming over south-central to SE Kansas, along the nose of strong ~850mb moisture advection and the general LLJ. Of note, HRRR runs have not tended to handle this new KS convection well with all but the most recent run or two holding off on anything budding until just NE of the KC Metro around/after 10z. This leads to limited confidence in convective trends to round out the overnight and into the morning/commute hours. Conceptually, given what is transpiring and the environment depicted on SPC Mesoanalysis, tend to expect this scattered elevated convection to lift into the forecast area from SW and potentially increase in general coverage as it does so. Fortunately, soundings (ACARS and model) depict a reestablished cap which will help drastically limit top end potential. If anything, these thunderstorms may further prime some locations for possible local flooding or river issues later today/tonight. This general activity should drift NE through the morning and yield a mostly cloudy and moist/humid day. Normally morning convection and cloud cover would give rise to recovery concerns, but persistent moderate to strong moist low level flow should have no issue re-priming and mixing the area. Especially with moderate to steep mid-level lapse rates remaining in place. So, how do we fell about this afternoon and evening given what how forecasts have gone the last couple of days? That is a fair question. A notable difference today is that more substantial/supportive synoptic lift approaches as well as a more progressive frontal boundary as the western trough continues to kick out into and across the Plains with its attendant surface low. So, convective initiation is probably least of the uncertainties, overall. Instead, questions tend to be more around when does convection first fire off this afternoon, is any of it discrete/ahead of the cold front, how quickly it may grow upscale/cluster/linear, etc. Those timing and, more importantly, storm mode answers will determine the most prevalent threats. As you would imagine, discrete convection would carry an all hazards threat, especially large hail and damaging winds. Right movers would potentially yield very supportive low level inflow that could yield the best opportunity for a tornado or two. Clustering or more linear modes, including along frontal passage, would transition threats more toward damaging winds and occasional hail. For reference, broad set of guidance suggests >2000 J/kg MLCAPE, >40-45 kts deep shear. If the cold front was less progressive, mean wind/deep shear orientation would be more concerning for training storms/flooding issues, fortunately that does not set up to be the case here. Activity as early as around 1pm and up to around the evening commute in the KC Metro and 9-10pm for eastern parts of the forecast area. Brief break in activity Thursday as the upper trough moves east and a bit drier air mass moves in, but temperatures remain seasonally warm in the 80s with southerly flow quickly returning. This helps set the table too for Friday which will be yet another chance, quite possibly our best during this stretch, for severe thunderstorm activity. By Friday, another western CONUS trough, currently moving down the coast of British Columbia/approaching Washington/PNW, will be pushing across the Intermountain West and induce rounds of Lee Cyclogenesis along Wyoming and Colorado Front Ranges. Conceptually this checks most the boxes as it is a pretty deep/sizable trough that begins to pivot/take on a neutral to negative tilt across the region. Robust/deep southerly flow ahead of this too will push surface dew points back into the mid 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates may push SB/MLCAPE values >2500-3000 J/kg. Wind profiles again look favorable for an all hazards situation with discrete convection. Synoptic scale lift support, frontal passage, and potential jet position start to check of additional boxes as well. Suffice it to say while you cannot necessarily hang your hat on the details just yet, Friday is a day to pay attention to. Bolstered by the previous Day 4 30% and the New Day 3 Enhanced by the SPC for much/most of the area. In the wake of this Friday system/threat, a period of quieter weather and cooler/more seasonable temperatures looks to settle in as NW mid-upper level flow and eventual height rises/ridging dominates. This should be through the weekend and at least into early next week before any notable precipitation chances attempt to return. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 With scattered showers/convection having moved off to the E/NE already this morning, concerns within the TAF period revolve around MVFR ceilings this morning, continued gusty SW winds, and storm coverage and timing this afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings are expanding and advecting in from the S and appear likely to overspread the sites within the next hour or two. This will continue into the late morning or early afternoon before diurnal mixing should lift back to low VFR ranges. Convection timing has varied a bit among guidance, but appears most likely between from mid-afteroon into the evening. Say as early as 20z through 00z among the TAF sites. Ahead of storms, winds potentially gust up to 30 kts among the KC Metro sites, and a handful of kts less up toward STJ. VFR conditions and lighter winds prevail after 00z. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...Curtis