FNUS74 KEPZ 101231 FWSEPZ Spot Forecast for 16 Springs RX...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 631 AM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 MDT on April 10. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon over LNF this afternoon and evening, lasting into the overnight timeframe. If storms develop and move in the vicinity of the RX burn, gusty and erratic outflow winds and dangerous lightning will be the primary threats. Min RH values this afternoon will drop in to the 20s with high temperatures in the low to middle 70s. Winds will generally be out of the southwest to south through the day at 6-11 mph with gusts to 20 mph possible. Smoke ventilation rates this afternoon will become very good to excellent. Scattered showers and storms continue for Saturday with drier conditions on Sunday. .TODAY... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-55 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of rain showers early in the afternoon. Chance of rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms late in the afternoon. If storms develop in the vicinity of the RX, gusty outflow winds and lightning will be the primary threats. Chance of pcpn......40-50 percent. Max temperature.....70-75 degrees. Min humidity........25-30 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds this morning, becoming southwest winds around 6-11 mph with gusts to around 15-20 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......Less than 1000 ft AGL increasing to 11700 ft AGL in the afternoon. Transport winds.....South 12 to 18 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (13200 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (98900 knot-ft) in the afternoon increasing to very good (110900 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to excellent (172500 knot-ft) in the afternoon in the afternoon. TIME (MDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM Sky (%).........41 57 68 71 73 70 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE S CHC CHANCE CHANCE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE S CHC S CHC Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 20 40 40 Temp............47 60 69 71 70 67 RH..............67 40 28 26 26 32 20 ft wind......SW 3 SW 7 SW 7 S 10 S 12 S 12 20 ft wind gust.7 11 13 17 20 20 Mix hgt (ft)....400 3000 10100 11500 11500 8000 Transport wind..SW 18 SW 16 S 12 S 16 S 17 S 18 Vrate kt-ft/1K..13 42 99 153 173 111 Ventrate Cat....POOR FAIR GOOD EXNT EXNT VYGD .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of rain showers overnight. Chance of pcpn......70-80 percent. Min temperature.....40-45 degrees. Max humidity........80-100 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the evening. Mixing height.......400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 9 to 18 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Good (72400 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (2100 knot-ft) late in the night. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........81 81 90 60 60 72 Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE DEFNTE CHANCE CHANCE NONE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE Tstm cov........S CHC S CHC S CHC NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).50 50 80 50 50 10 Temp............63 55 50 49 47 47 RH..............39 61 80 83 89 89 20 ft wind......SW 10 SW 10 SW 8 SW 6 SW 6 S 5 20 ft wind gust.18 18 18 14 14 12 Mix hgt (ft)....5200 1000 2600 600 400 800 Transport wind..S 16 S 15 S 18 SW 13 S 10 S 9 Vrate kt-ft/1K..72 22 2 7 5 3 Ventrate Cat....GOOD POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain showers in the morning, then rain showers and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......80 percent. Max temperature.....62-68 degrees. Min humidity........40-45 percent. Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 11 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......6200 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 7 to 16 mph increasing to west around 24 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3200 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (97600 knot-ft) in the afternoon increasing to very good (114300 knot-ft) late in the afternoon. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........78 68 70 73 Weather cov.....NONE CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........NONE NONE CHANCE S CHC Chc of pcpn (%).10 50 80 80 Temp............46 52 61 61 RH..............96 80 56 51 20 FT wind......S 6G14 S 8G20 SW 9G21 SW 9G21 Mix hgt (ft)....500 1700 5400 4900 Transport wind..S 7 S 14 S 18 SW 23 Vrate kt-ft/1K..3 20 86 98 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR GOOD GOOD .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY... Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. Southwest winds around 11 mph. .MONDAY... Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. Southwest winds around 15 mph. .TUESDAY... Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Highs in the lower 60s. West winds around 21 mph. $$ Forecaster...ROGERS Requested by...Hayley Boss Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2609570.1/EPZ .DELDT 04/10/26 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL matthew.barone@usda.gov,hchrisboss@gmail.com,hayley.boss@usda.gov