FXUS61 KILN 151039 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 639 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, primarily across West Central Ohio. 2) Well above normal temperatures are expected through the rest of the week. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue. Strong cold front moves through this weekend, bringing cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Amplified mid level flow with s large ridge centered over the southeast CONUS. Active weather pattern as disturbances track around the periphery of this ridge. Strong storms currently tracking thru the Southern Great Lakes associated with an embedded disturbance. A few storms from this system may build south and clip ILN/s northern counties this morning. These storms should be weaker in ILN/s area and elevated and are not expected to pose a widespread severe threat. Focus shifts to strong to severe weather threat this afternoon and early evening. Additional storms are expected to develop in the warm sector with moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1250-1500 J/KG. Mid level winds of 40-50 KTS will continue to rotate around the periphery of the ridge. Thunderstorm development will likely occur along outflow boundaries in the warm sector with CAM solutions showing convective bands tracking thru the northern half of ILN/s area thru early evening. Exact placement and timing of these bands remains uncertain. ML guidance aligns with the area along and north of I-70, will highlight this threat in HWO. The most favored time between 3 pm and 10 pm and the main threats are damaging winds and large hail. KEY MESSAGE 2) Anomalously warm conditions to continue thru the the remainder of the week and into the first part of this weekend. High temperatures look to run 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Normal high temperatures are in the middle 60s and highs in the upper 70s and 80s will be common. Today's high temperatures look to be close to record values. Record highs for today 4/15: CVG 84 set in 1976, 2010.........Todays forecast 83. DAY 82 set in 2002, 2010, 2017...Todays forecast 83. CMH 84 set in 2010...............Todays forecast 83. A shortwave tracking the the area Thursday will lead to a good chance for thunderstorms. Limited instability may inhibit widespread severe weather. However, locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible. Mid level ridging looks to inhibit convection Friday with highs from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. The warm stretch ends this weekend as a strong cold front shifts east through the middle Ohio Valley late Saturday. CAA and gusty westerly winds are likely Sunday with high temperatures from the lower and middle 50s to around 60. Low temperatures Sunday night dip into the 30s as the surface high moves into our area. Frost may be a concern Sunday night and Monday morning. Cool temperatures continue Monday with high from the mid 50s to the lower 60s. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions expected this morning into the afternoon. A weakening thunderstorm complex is currently moving thru the Southern Great Lakes looks to stay north of the TAF sites this morning. Thunderstorms development is expected later this afternoon into this evening in the moderately unstable airmass. The best coverage of storms looks to occur along and north of the I-70 corridor. Have handled this threat with prob30 at the KDAY, KILN, and KCMH KLCK TAF sites. Can not rule out isold to scattered storms farther south but anticipated coverage is too low to mention in the forecast at this time. Southwest surface winds will gust up to 25 kts this afternoon and then decrease to around 10 kts tonight. A period of low level wind shear will occur across the region after 06Z tonight. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Thursday, then again Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...AR