FXUS62 KKEY 170752
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
352 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes will prevail over
  the next couple days, and will tend to peak overnight before
  lulling during the day.

- Little to no measurable rain will maintain continued moderate
  drought conditions in the Florida Keys through the weekend, and
  into the beginning of next week.

- Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal, with
  highs in the lower to mid 80s, and lows in the lower to mid 70s.

- A frontal boundary will move through the Keys sometime Sunday,
  potentially bringing another period of windy conditions, lower
  humidity, and increasing rain chances.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A little better moisture has filtered in from the east overnight.
This has allowed for widely scattered, light showers to develop
and move across portions of the Upper and Middle Keys. The best
moisture is pushing into far southern Florida and as such,
showers are falling apart as they try to shift further west across
the Lower Keys. Winds peaked early in the overnight and are
gradually coming down with generally 10 knots measured across the
marine platforms. Across the Straits of Florida, we continue to
see 10 to 15 knots as well as some deeper showers. The increase in
moisture has allowed for dew points to creep up into the upper 60s
to near 70 degrees for the island chain.

For today, any chances of seeing either sprinkles or a brief light
shower will be this morning. Thereafter, expect mostly sunny skies
with day time highs reaching once again into the lower to mid 80s.
Otherwise, another moisture plume will pivot in tonight with
additional slight chances for showers and another round of peaking
winds.

As we go into the weekend, we see one more cycle of winds peaking
and lulling on Saturday. By Sunday, a high out across the western
North Atlantic will ease further east in response to an
approaching frontal boundary. This will cause winds to slacken
and it's possible we could briefly see variable winds as the
pressure gradient becomes nebulous. The next front will slowly
bleed in from the north and northeast Sunday night into Monday and
won't come with much fanfare.

The strong high filling in behind it Monday, however, will usher
in a blast of northeasterlies across the island chain. Expect
winds to sharply increase during the late afternoon and evening
hours on Monday with windy conditions quickly developing. As the
high moves across the southeastern tier of the U.S. and across the
southwestern North Atlantic, we will maintain windy conditions
Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

As the high slides further to our east, winds will relax and
potentially better moisture will return. There is high uncertainty
however, as models disagree on where the moisture axis will lie.
The GFS favors an axis placement near or across the Keys, while
the ECMWF has it well to our south with a continuation of dry
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Generally gentle northeast to east breezes this morning with the
exception of the Straits of Florida where gentle to moderate
breezes will still be found. Slightly better moisture this morning
has allowed for widely scattered light showers to develop and move
across mainly our eastern waters. We will continue to see a cycle
of lulls and peaks in winds through Saturday night. Thereafter, a
high pressure centered across the Atlantic will pull further away
from the Keys, allowing for a brief period of light to gentle
breezes. A backdoor front will gradually ease through Sunday night
into Monday, quickly followed by a strong high pressure. This will
lead to breezes sharply freshening during the late afternoon and
early evening on Monday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are
becoming increasing likely with a period of fresh to strong
breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A few
isolated showers will approach the MTH terminal from the east but
will likely not impact the air field. Otherwise, northeast to east
winds will hold at 10 knots or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  84  74  85  74 /  10  10  10  10
Marathon  82  75  83  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....BT

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