FGUS63 KKRF 111702 ESGKRF _MKCESGKRF SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL, MO March 11, 2026 NARRATIVE PART 1 OF 1 ATTN WFO'S SERVED BY MBRFC. This Spring Flood Outlook is not for public release until Thursday, 12 March 2026. This Spring Outlook is for the Missouri River drainage which includes rivers in Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Minnesota, and Missouri. SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK Overall Flood Risk and Conditions ... Flood risk this spring across the Missouri River Basin is generally below normal when compared to historical likelihood of flooding. A decreased flood risk is predominant across the eastern portion of the basin while flood risk is near to below normal across the western portion of the basin. To provide context: - A normal flood risk means that locations that typically experience springtime flooding are likely to flood again this year. However, this does not guarantee that flooding will occur. - For locations that do not typically flood, a normal risk indicates that flooding is again not expected. - A decreased flood risk does not necessarily mean flooding will not occur, nor does an increased flood risk guarantee that flooding will happen. Since the start of the water year on October 1st, precipitation has been above normal across Montana, North Dakota, and northern Wyoming falling within the top 25% of the climatological record going back roughly 135 years. Elsewhere, precipitation has been near to below normal, with the driest conditions centered over Nebraska. However, since January 1st, and especially over the last couple of weeks, precipitation has been below normal for a majority of the basin with the exception of eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Temperatures since October 1 have remained above average, most notably across the southern and western portions of the basin where the climatological rank is in the top 5 warmest (of 134 years). Only the northeastern portion of the basin falls outside of this rank, but still in the top 25. While both the maximum and minimum temperatures have been above normal this year, maximum temperatures have had a larger departure from normal. These warmer temperatures have limited snowpack across the basin. Soil moisture across the basin made a significant improvement in the spring and summer of 2025, but has since deteriorated, especially in the lower basin. The most notable area of saturated soils remains around the North Dakota / South Dakota / Montana border. With significant rain this March across the southeastern portion of the basin, soil moisture has increased in eastern Kansas and across Missouri. This rainfall was significant enough to add several locations to the spring flood outlook for this issuance. At this time last year, 62% of the Missouri River Basin was experiencing some level of drought. By the end of 2025, that aerial coverage had decreased to 21% of the basin. Since the beginning of 2026 though, conditions have continued to deteriorate; with 57% of the basin now being categorized as some level of drought. For all intents and purposes the basin is entering into its sixth consecutive year of drought. Recent Flooding Aside from intermittent ice jam flooding and swelling of some small streams and tributaries due to snowmelt, flooding has been minimal this winter. Minor flooding occurred mid-February in east-central Kansas within the Marias Des Cynges River basin. Additionally, as March began, heavy precipitation across eastern Kansas and Missouri caused minor flooding in the Osage and Marias Des Cynges river basins as well as tributaries to the Missouri River below Kansas City. Mountain & Plains Snowpack Plains snowpack has been largely absent this season. While the basin has experienced several rounds of snow across the plains, the snowpack continues to build and melt relatively quickly. The Missouri Basin is approximately 80% of the way through the normal peak snow water equivalent accumulating period for mountain snow. The accumulation of snowpack across the mountainous west has been below average. This is mostly due to precipitation that would normally fall as snow, falling as rain this winter due to the warmer than average temperatures. Soil temperatures have begun to increase over the past few weeks. Frost depths that had exceeded 1-2 feet across the northern basin, are beginning to thaw. If the ground continues to thaw in the coming weeks, flood potential due to frozen ground will decrease. Water Supply ... Water supply forecasts produced by the National Weather Service and issued in early March, project lower than average April-September runoff volumes for all of the mountainous west. Volume forecasts vary across the mountain west. While some locations along the Montana / Wyoming border remain near normal, a stronger and more consistent signal toward below-normal runoff, ranging from 30-90%, currently exists across Colorado and southern Wyoming as well as northern Montana. This is primarily due to the lower than average present accumulated snowpack. The next water supply update will be issued in early April. More information regarding current Water Supply Forecasts can be accessed at: https://weather.gov/mbrfc/water Ice Jam Flooding ... River ice impacts have posed only minor problems this winter. While ice jam break-up flooding risk is considered low this year, wherever river ice remains, so does the risk for ice jam flooding. Please note, the probabilistic quantifications that form the basis for this Spring Flood Outlook do not take into account the presence of river ice. Flood Potential ... Springtime flooding in the lower one-third of the basin is typically driven by thunderstorm activity. Flooding is projected to occur again this spring in this region of the basin. The outlook area is limited to eastern Kansas and areas across Missouri. The following state by state flood potential discussions are based on long-range probabilistic river outlooks developed this week. The locations listed have a greater than 50% chance of exceeding minor flood stage. South Dakota: - Minor flooding is expected on the James River Kansas: - Minor flooding is expected on the Little Osage River, Marais Des Cygnes River, and Solomon River - Moderate flooding is expected on Stranger Creek Missouri: - Moderate flooding is expected on Big Creek, Blackwater River, Grand River, Petite Saline Creek, and Crooked River - Minor flooding is projected along the Marmaton River, Moniteau Creek, Grand River, Little Osage River, Big Piney River, Moreau River, South Grand River, Roubidoux Creek, Chariton River, Wakenda Creek, Hinkson Creek, Maries River, Sac River, Lamine River and the mainstem Missouri River below Kansas City Regarding the greater than 25% exceedance flood potential, many additional locations are outlooked, mainly confined to the eastern half of the basin. It is possible these locations will exceed flood stage through May with several more locations also locations possible to exceed moderate flood category as well. This flood potential spans from eastern South Dakota south across eastern Nebraska / Kansas and across much of Missouri. This enhancement in flood risk would likely be driven by extreme thunderstorm activity or prolonged heavy rainfall events. These projections of river stages are based on current observed states of streamflow, soil moisture, and snowpack, coupled with future precipitation and temperature patterns and anticipated operational hydrologic changes such as reservoir releases and canal diversions. "Outlooks" are provided for long-range (weeks to months) projections based on climatological patterns of precipitation and temperature. "Forecasts" are provided for short-term (days) projections based on forecast patterns of precipitation and temperature. The uncertainty of these products varies from season to season and location to location. The uncertainty of forecasts tends to be less than the uncertainty of outlooks due to their shorter lead time. Users of these products are encouraged to contact their nearest National Weather Service Forecast Office for continued updates of meteorological conditions which can have significant impacts on flood preparedness planning and flood fighting activities. For additional quantitative information please refer to NWPS products for probabilistic outlooks of potential flooding. Refer to short-term flood forecasts and products, if any are currently issued, for information about ongoing or near-term anticipated flooding. This is the final scheduled Spring Flood Outlooks of the 2026 season. Additional river information, including the monthly Water Supply Outlook, can be accessed at the following URL: https://weather.gov/mbrfc Current Snow Conditions... The conditions listed below are based on observations and model data as of Wednesday morning, March 11th. Montana Pockets of snow depths of 1-2 inches are being reported across the plains of Montana with water equivalents generally less than 0.2 inches. Wyoming and Colorado Plains Little to no snow is being reported across the plains of Wyoming and Colorado. Mountainous West Snowpack conditions in the mountainous areas of the basin are generally below normal. In Montana, the Jefferson, Musselshell, Missouri headwaters, Sun, Teton, and Marais River basins are reporting a below normal snowpack (75-90%). The St. Mary and Milk basins are reporting a below normal snowpack (40-70%). In Wyoming, the Tongue, Bighorn, Powder, Wind, and Yellowstone River basins are reporting a below to near normal snowpack (55-95%). The higher elevations of the North Platte River basin are reporting a below normal snowpack (71%). In Colorado, the higher elevations of the South Platte River basin are reporting a below normal snowpack (67%). North Dakota A recent storm has produced snow depths from 1-2 inches across much of North Dakota. Water equivalents are generally less than 0.2 inches. South Dakota The Black Hills in South Dakota have 8-10 inches of snow depth with water equivalents in the 1-3 inch range. Snow depths of 1-2 inches are being reported across the northern portion of South Dakota. Water equivalents are generally less than 0.2 inches. Elsewhere across the state, little or no snow is being reported. Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri and Kansas Nebraska and northwest Iowa also received an additional inch of snow overnight with water equivalents less than 0.1 inches. No snow is being reported across Missouri and Kansas. Current Soil Moisture Conditions The US Drought Monitor indicates that large portions of the Missouri River basin are experiencing below normal soil moisture conditions. Extreme drought is indicated across portions of northern Montana, southern Wyoming, northern Colorado, and western Nebraska. Moderate to severe drought is occurring across central Montana, much of Wyoming, much of Nebraska, and southern South Dakota. Isolated frost depth reports suggest that soils across Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota, and North Dakota have frost penetration ranging from 0.5-2 feet. Frost depths of less than 0.5 feet are being reported across Nebraska, Iowa, Colorado, Kansas, and Missouri. Current River Conditions Recent rain across eastern Kansas and much of Missouri has area rivers running above average. Elsewhere, river levels across the basin are currently running near to below normal. A summary of river flow conditions at selected river stations for March 11th follows: Long Term Current Mean (CFS) (CFS) James River - Huron, SD 220 550(EST) Big Sioux River - Akron, IA 1730 740 Platte River - Louisville, NE 10900 8100 Kansas River - Desoto, KS 5920 2150 Gasconade River - Jerome, MO 3800 8650 Missouri River - Omaha, NE 23200 16900 Missouri River - Rulo, NE 34900 26000 Missouri River - St. Joseph, MO 38800 27400 Missouri River - Waverly, MO 48900 30000 Missouri River - Hermann, MO 87000 97600 END MBRFC $$