FXUS64 KLUB 170524 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1224 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026 - Very warm and breezy Friday with continued critical fire danger. - Strong north winds are expected Friday night into early Saturday behind a potent cold front, with dry and cool weather expected this weekend. - Sub-freezing temperatures are possible early Saturday morning and especially early Sunday morning over the SW TX Panhandle and northern South Plains. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Friday night) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Rapid low level moisture return was underway late Thursday evening and will continue through the rest of the night with surface dewpoints expected to reach into the upper 50s to lower 60s over a majority of the region by Friday morning. Aloft, a fairly large amplitude upper trough axis will track eastward over the central and northern plains states through the next 24 hours. Resultant strong southwest flow aloft along the length of the Rockies will deepen a sub-1000mb surface trough over the TX Panhandle Friday, ahead of a potent cold front moving southward over OK and KS. Southwest winds will strengthen over our area as a result, with low level moisture quickly mixing out by early afternoon. Compressional warming will result in Friday being the warmest day of this week so far with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with critical fire weather conditions expected over a majority of the region yet again. The above-mentioned cold front is expected to enter our TX Panhandle counties near sunset, and pass southward through the rest of the forecast area during the remainder of the evening. Given the warm and very dry airmass still in place, no precipitation is expected over a majority of our area with the frontal passage itself. However, enough moisture may be present to support a few storms over the southern Rolling Plains with the arrival of the front late Friday evening. In general though, the threat for severe weather and more widespread storm activity is currently expected to remain to our east. The other main impact of the frontal passage will be a period of strong north winds on Friday night, with surface pressure rises approaching 10 mb in 3 hours supporting sustained wind speeds in the 30 to 40 mph range during the hours surrounding midnight, mainly over the SE TX Panhandle. Strong cold advection will also bring a rapid drop in temperatures through the night, with some locations over the far SW TX Panhandle and northern South Plains possibly approaching the freezing mark early Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The upcoming weekend will feature dry weather and cool temperatures area-wide as an expansive surface ridge settles over the region in the wake of the earlier cold front. Most locations will see highs in the 60s Saturday and low 70s on Sunday, and freezing temperatures appear likely over the SW TX Panhandle and northern South Plains on Sunday morning. From late Sunday into Monday, upper ridging will begin building over our region in between the exiting upper low over Hudson Bay and a second low off the coast of CA and OR. A weak midlevel disturbance beneath this ridging is set to pass overhead on Monday, with the associated cloud cover expected to keep afternoon highs relatively cool on Monday as well. A few scattered showers or weak thunderstorms are also possible Monday, although a lack of deep moisture will keep precipitation amounts quite light. The forecast for Tuesday through the rest of the week becomes much more uncertain given significant differences between models regarding the evolution of the west coast upper low. Currently, consensus favors a return to generally warm weather, with additional thunderstorm activity possible by midweek given generally southwesterly upper level flow. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026 Breezy southerly winds around 15-20kts will continue at all terminals through the remainder of the night. While guidance has backed off, we still expect MVFR CIGs to impact both KLBB and KPVW by daybreak before clearing around mid-morning. VFR CIGs are expected to prevail at KCDS through the rest of the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1044 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Another dry and breezy day is expected Friday which will result in critical fire weather conditions across the region. Initially south winds during the morning hours will quickly strengthen and turn southwesterly by midday, with sustained speeds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts to 40 mph expected during the afternoon. These winds combined with minimum RH values mostly in the single digits will result in RFTI values of 5 to 7 across much of the forecast area, and a Red Flag Warning is in effect from 12 PM until 9 PM. A strong cold front will then pass southward through the region on Friday night, bringing a shift to very strong north winds which will persist through early Saturday. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are possible Saturday as northerly breezes continue with afternoon RH values generally below 15 percent. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>037-039>042. Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for TXZ021>023-027>029. Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 5 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ024>026-031-032. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...12