FXUS63 KMQT 151116 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 716 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread fog, dense at times, leads to reduced visibility through the morning commute. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the entire UP this morning. - The threat for flooding continues through the week due to snowmelt and potential showers and thunderstorms. A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire UP, ending this morning over the far west then Thursday night elsewhere. - Showers and storms may reach the central and eastern UP tonight into Thursday morning, with light totals below a quarter inch. - Showers and Thunderstorms are expected with a cold front Friday night into Saturday early morning. Widespread totals up to half an inch are becoming likely, but higher amounts are possible with a 10- 20% chance for totals in excess of an inch. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Earl this morning, a warm front remains draped across southern WI eastward through the central LP. Forcing along it has lead to more active weather across WI and the LP, but we remain well north of the excitement, up here on the cool side of the boundary. With plenty of low-level moisture courtesy of our melting snowpack and a sharp inversion, widespread fog is developing across the UP. This is dense at times, with several ASOS sites throughout the area reporting visibility well below a mile. Model soundings show limited chance of this mixing out even through sunrise, so the Dense Fog Advisory has been extended a couple of hours until 14Z. Heading into the daytime hours, once our fog mixes out, we should see some breaks of sunshine across the western UP Much like today temperatures will vary greatly across the U.P, with low 40s in the far north to the low 60s south, closer in proximity to the warm front. This, in combination with dewpoints in the 40s, will lead to increased snowmelt which in turn continues to pose a threat for flooding o rivers, small streams, creeks, and low-lying areas. Flood headlines remain intact. Another shortwave looks to ride along the boundary this evening into tonight, and though guidance increasingly limits PoPs to our south, with more of a glancing blow to the UP, some showers and storms still will not be ruled out across our area. This should leave us with rain totals of less than a quarter of an inch, with any isolated storms dropping higher amounts. A warmer stretch is expected for Thursday into Friday as a deep trough moves into the western U.S. Easterly winds will develop on Thursday, becoming southerly by Friday. This will bring the potential for some of the warmest temperatures thus far this spring, reaching into the 70s over the west (90% chance for temperatures over 70). The strengthening southerly winds, warm temperatures and higher dew points will accelerate the melting of the snowpack further with continued flooding concerns. More uncertainly exists for the weekend as the low pressure moves east along or north of Lake Superior. Slower solutions keep warmer air in the U.P. well into Saturday while faster solutions would bring a front through and much cooler temperatures by Saturday morning. Another round of rain and thunderstorms is likely to accompany the front. Behind the front it will be much cooler with snow showers possible Saturday night into Sunday. Some guidance still suggests a wet snowfall for the western U.P. NBM probabilities for 2" or more of wet snow in the west are around 20-40% Saturday night into Sunday. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 715 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Widespread LIFR/VLIFR fog is noted on area webcams and ASOS stations across the entire northern Great Lakes region under anomalous moisture and calm winds. As has been the case the previous night, thinking fog will slowly lift through the late morning into the early afternoon, first at IWD with CMX and SAW catching up. Light N to NW winds may cause upslope fog and low cigs to linger longer at CMX/SAW. MVFR/VFR cigs and vis expected through the afternoon with light winds once fog lifts. Widespread fog is once again anticipated tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Light, stable flow is expected through Thursday with a weak pressure gradient over the area. Dense fog remains over much of the lake through this moring, slowly mixing out during the afternoon before expanding again tonight. Southerly winds will develop and increase on Friday ahead of a deepening low pressure, 30% chance for gales over the eastern lake. This low will push through over the weekend bringing a cold front and the potential for northwesterly gales (around 50% chance Saturday night into Sunday). && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 NOHRSC analysis showed the the snowpack had eroded over much of the southern and far western U.P. Over the north and east several inches to over a foot of SWE remained, greatest in the higher terrain. Snowmelt will continue through the week and accelerate late in the week as a warm, moist airmass moves into the U.P. Additional rain chances continue, with a slight chance for showers/storms tonight and higher confidence in another wave of rain Friday night. Rainfall tonight will likely be less than a quarter inch but heavier rainfall is possible for Friday night. NBM has a 10-20% chance for an inch of more of rainfall Friday night. Colder weather is expected for Saturday night and Sunday which should slow the melt of any remaining snow. Flooding in the wake of snowmelt and multiple heavy rain events continued over the south-central U.P. Tuesday. Though the snowpack is mostly gone in the south-central; swamps, creeks, low lying areas and rivers remain full/high and additional showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight. This could exacerbate the ongoing flooding though widespread heavy rainfall is not expected. For the north and east snowmelt and potential rainfall will continue the flooding threat though the week with the analysis and observations showing over a foot of SWE in the higher terrain. Rivers in the far western U.P. were beginning to fall and anticipate that the Flood Watch will be able to expire this morning. The Flood Watch remains in effect for all but the far western U.P. until Thursday night. This may need to be extended further in time with future updates as even warmer temperatures and higher dew points, along with increasing winds are expected for Thursday and Friday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ001-003>007- 010>014-084-085. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085. Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for MIZ002- 009. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for LSZ162-240>251-263>267. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ221-248- 250. && $$ DISCUSSION...LC/NL AVIATION...BW MARINE...LC/NL HYDROLOGY...