FGUS63 KMSR 121825 RRA
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Upper Midwest Spring Snowmelt and Flood Potential Outlook
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
125 PM CDT Thu Mar 12, 2026

This is the third and final Spring Flood Outlook to be provided this
year, to discuss hydrologic conditions across the region, and the
associated potential for spring flooding.

To view the NCRFC 2026 Spring Hydrologic Outlook storymap, which
includes a more detailed description of the flood outlook and
images, refer to: http://www.weather.gov/NCRFC and select the 2026
Spring Hydrologic Outlook news headline near the top of the page.

This outlook references information from many sources, including the
following core partners:

 *United States Geological Survey(USGS)
 *Regional Climate Centers (Midwest-MRCC and High Plains-HPRCC)
 *US Drought Monitor (NIDIS)
 *US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)
 *NOAA, Office of Water Prediction (OWP)

The following 2026 Spring Flood Outlook issuance dates have been set
in coordination with all NWS regions and NWS headquarters.

National Weather Service issues Spring Flood Outlook with
probabilistic products on:

 * Thursday, February 12, 2026 (completed)
 * Thursday, February 26, 2026 (completed)
 * Thursday, March 12, 2026 (today)

NOAA National Hydrologic Assessment/Spring Flood Outlook release and
media day:

 * Thursday, March 19, 2026


            ********************************
             Spring 2026 NCRFC Area Summary
            ********************************

The Spring 2026 flood outlook for the North Central River Forecast
Center (NCRFC) area is generally normal to slightly below normal,
with notable regional exceptions. Areas like Missouri, southern
Iowa, and southern Illinois show a below-normal risk, while regions
prone to persistent lake-effect snow, such as the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan and northern Wisconsin, have an above-normal risk. While
there is a 50 percent or greater chance for minor flooding at
several forecast points, no points currently indicate a 50 percent
or greater chance for major flooding.

These outlook conditions are heavily influenced by the preceding
fall and early winter environment. The Midwest experienced its sixth-
warmest autumn on record, characterized by significant dryness with
precipitation levels below 75 percent of the typical average. This
led to dry soil moisture conditions across most of the region before
the winter freeze-up, which currently helps mitigate flood risks by
providing more capacity for the ground to absorb future meltwater.

Winter conditions transitioned to below-average temperatures with
several Arctic air outbreaks that facilitated frost development.
Frost depths are currently near normal across the north, but frost
has begun to thaw in some locations. Snowfall has been variable;
while much of the region has below-normal snow water equivalent
(SWE), significant lake-effect events have resulted in high SWE
totals of 7 to 10 plus inches in parts of Michigan's Upper
Peninsula. Upcoming precipitation events, particularly this weekend,
will have an impact on the overall flood outlook as significant
precipitation is expected especially from Wisconsin and
across Michigan and could lead to or exacerbate ongoing high water
concerns in those areas.

Looking ahead, the climate outlook is influenced by ongoing La Nina
conditions, though its signals are not currently strong. There are
equal chances for above or below-normal temperatures through the
spring, while above-normal precipitation is favored specifically
across the Great Lakes region. As the season progresses, La Nina is
expected to wane, transitioning toward an ENSO-neutral state by late
spring.

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NCRFC