FXUS64 KOUN 151136 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 636 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 631 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday and Friday. - Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will return several days this week, especially across portions of northwestern and far western Oklahoma. - Dry and cooler weather this weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 149 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Early this morning, a few elevated showers and thunderstorms are moving across southwestern and central Oklahoma. This activity may produce small hail, brief heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds. A few global models continue develop more widespread showers and thunderstorms across parts of south central and southeastern Oklahoma before sunrise, while CAMs keep coverage isolated to widely scattered. Ceiling heights across south central and southeastern Oklahoma are roughly 4-6k feet and soundings suggest about 1000 J/kg of elevated CAPE. For now will side with more isolated to widely scattered coverage through sunrise. Later this afternoon, at least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a near a dryline. The dryline will be located farther east than Tuesday, so perhaps initial storm develop will be along and east of an Enid to Lawton and Seymour, Texas line. It's possible that upscale growth will occur quickly to an MCS or line segments. This would limit the large hail risk to the first few hours of development with an evolution to strong winds, smaller hail, and heavy rainfall. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 149 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A trailing shortwave trough is expected to move across the Panhandles and western Oklahoma late Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning. Although a majority of the convection will be confined to the eastern third of Oklahoma by late Wednesday evening, some lingering precipitation is possible. With mainly dry conditions expected on Thursday, focus will turn to fire weather conditions across western Oklahoma during the afternoon. Temperatures will be very warm to hot, and afternoon humidity will fall to around 10 to 15 percent across the western third of the state including the adjacent area of northern Texas. A southwesterly wind will be a little breezy but wind gusts are expected to be in the 25-30 mph range. Thursday evening and overnight, a shortwave trough will approach in southwesterly flow aloft. This may result widely scattered showers and perhaps thunderstorms. Most of this activity should be northeast of the area by mid to late morning. By mid afternoon Friday, a dryline is expected to sharpen across western Oklahoma, as an upper trough approaches the northern and central Plains. With mid to upper 60s dewpoint in place, instability will increase to around 3000 J/kg. So if a few storms develop along the dry, supercells are likely with a risk of very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. By early to mid evening, a strong cold front will begin to move across parts of western and northern Oklahoma. Thunderstorms will likely develop along the front with a risk of damaging winds and hail. The surface cold front will clear southeastern Oklahoma by early Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 149 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Northerly winds behind a cold front will continue to usher in a much drier airmass on Saturday. An elevated frontal boundary across south central and southeastern Oklahoma may result in scattered showers through the late morning/early afternoon. With portions of western Oklahoma missing out on the recent rainfall, elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Saturday afternoon, especially across northwestern Oklahoma where fuels remain receptive to fire. With a clear sky expected and light winds, portions of northern and western Oklahoma may see a light freeze by sunrise Sunday. Currently, forecast temperatures are in the mid 30s, but certainly would not be surprised to see some upper 20s to lower 30s. After a cold start Sunday, temperatures will warm into the lower and mid 70s by afternoon. The wind will become a little breezy across western Oklahoma, so maybe a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions during the afternoon. A low amplitude shortwave trough will move across Texas late Sunday into Monday. This may result in a few showers and storms mainly across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas late Sunday into Monday. On Tuesday, a breezy southerly wind is expected with modest moisture return. Rain and storm chances will remain around 10 percent during the day. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR to VFR ceilings are expected through mid to late morning for sites across central Oklahoma. Severe thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon with some uncertainty in coverage. Confidence is greatest that storms should remain east of WWR/CSM, otherwise PROB30 was used for most other sites. Any storm that develops will be capable of all hazards; large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. Storms will move east out of most sites by late this evening, except DUA may see an additional round of storms across southeast Oklahoma into the overnight hours. Low clouds may return in the early morning hours Thursday with MVFR ceilings in the wake of the storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 81 59 86 65 / 70 30 0 10 Hobart OK 86 53 90 62 / 40 10 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 85 61 91 65 / 60 10 0 10 Gage OK 83 47 89 60 / 10 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 82 56 85 64 / 60 40 0 0 Durant OK 78 64 86 66 / 80 50 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...06 SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...23