FXUS62 KRAH 151007 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 610 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 235 AM Wednesday... * NCFS has requested Increased Fire Danger for all of central NC through at least Thursday, but statements (SPS) will only highlight the following day (Wed). && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 235 AM Wednesday... 1) Dry fuels combined with rather breezy and very warm conditions will promote fire weather concerns well into the weekend. 2) An early-season heat wave will result in near record high temperatures through Saturday. 3) A late-weekend pattern transition is expected with a cold frontal passage. Low-end rain chances are expected on Sunday, followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 245 AM Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry fuels combined with rather breezy and very warm conditions will promote fire weather concerns well into the weekend. Strong ridging over the SE will remain locked in place into the weekend before weakening. Therefore, exceptionally very dry and very warm conditions will continue for the next several days. Highs will top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s today and Thursday, with little change Friday and Saturday. SW winds will occasionally be breezy, moreso on Thursday with gusts to 25 mph possible. Expect Increased Fire Danger Statements to be issued daily until things change significantly. Key Message 2: An early-season heat wave is expected to bring near- record high temperatures through Saturday. A strong and persistent area of subtropical high pressure will remain over the Southeast U.S. through most of this period, with only a brief interruption from a weak, dry disturbance on Friday. At the surface, a Bermuda High will promote warm southwesterly winds into central North Carolina. Atmospheric thickness values (1000–850 mb) are forecast to be near the 95th percentile for this time of year, supporting unusually warm conditions. Daily high and low temperatures may approach or even break records. Expect afternoon highs mainly in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the lower to mid-60s—about 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Saturday is likely to be the hottest day, with some locations possibly reaching the mid-90s, which would be close to the warmest temperatures ever recorded in April. Humidity levels should remain relatively manageable, with dew points generally in the lower to mid-50s, and even dipping into the 40s at times, especially in western areas. As a result, heat index values will be slightly lower than the actual air temperatures by a few degrees. Even so, several consecutive days of lower-90s temperatures could pose a risk of heat stress, particularly for sensitive individuals and anyone spending extended time outdoors. Key Message 3: A shift in the weather pattern is expected late this weekend as a cold front moves through. This will bring a slight chance of rain on Sunday, followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. A broad upper-level trough will move eastward from the Plains into the eastern United States over the weekend. Its associated cold front is forecast to pass through central North Carolina on Sunday. This could bring a few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. However, current model guidance (including the GFS and ECMWF) suggests the front will move through relatively early in the day, limiting atmospheric instability. Forecast instability values remain low, with only a few hundred J/kg of CAPE expected. In addition, the strongest lift and deepest moisture are expected to stay north of the area, which should keep rainfall amounts light. Ensemble averages indicate totals of around a tenth of an inch or less, meaning little to no improvement in ongoing drought conditions. Behind the front, a noticeably cooler air mass will settle in for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to fall below normal, with daytime highs mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s and overnight lows dropping into the 40s (some 30s are possible Tuesday morning according to some of the latest guidance in the Piedmont). && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... As of 610 AM Wednesday... Sub-tropical high pressure extending across the South Atlantic states will favor a high probability of VFR conditions and SSW surface winds that will strengthen and become occasionally gusty with daytime heating again today (10-20kt). Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure will favor warm, dry, and VFR conditions in cntl NC through Sat. Light, probably VFR rain will be possible along and behind a cold front that will move across cntl NC early Sunday. && .CLIMATE... All-Time Records for April KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915 KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/28/1896 KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930 Record High Temperatures: April 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006 April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006 April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941 April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941 April 19: KFAY: 94/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 15: KGSO: 65/2006 KRDU: 64/1993 April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 KFAY: 69/1934 April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921 April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002 April 19: KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 67/2002 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Badgett/NP AVIATION...Badgett/MWS CLIMATE...rah