FXUS61 KRNK 150623 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation Update. A Special Weather Statement was issued for parts of VA and NC for increased fire danger today (Wednesday). && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Well above normal temperatures through the end of the week, with some records possible. Colder temperatures behind frontal passage on Sunday. 2. A cold front brings a few chances for rain and ushers in cooler air by the end of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Well above normal temperatures through the end of the week, with some records possible. Colder temperatures behind frontal passage on Sunday. A strong 500mb ridge centered over the Gulf will maintain its hold on much of the eastern US through the end of the work week. Broad south to southwesterly flow into the region at the surface and aloft will continue to advect warmer air into the area, and therefore, will see well above normal temperatures continuing through the end of the week and into the beginning of the weekend. NBM probabilities for high temperatures exceeding 85 degrees F are nearly 100% for the Piedmont and Roanoke and Southern Shenandoah Valleys Wednesday (today), Thursday and Saturday. Probabilities for highs 90 degrees F or higher are over 80% for parts of Southside and central VA. Both high and low temperatures will be between 15 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages. A shortwave will pass over the area Thursday into Friday, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly for the mountains. Timing of the shortwave passage looks unfavorable for more widespread coverage of storms, since current model guidance shows the wave moving into the area late Thursday, after the peak of daytime heating and instability. Coverage looks much less east of the mountains, so the Piedmont will miss out on any meaningful rainfall. Slightly cooler temperatures, though still above normal, are in the forecast for Friday, following the passage of the shortwave, but temperatures quickly rebound into the mid to upper 80s, into the 90s in the east for Saturday, in the warm sector ahead of a stronger cold front. Greater relief from the heat looks to come after the frontal passage, with highs falling in the mid 50s to mid 60s by Monday. The mountains, especially in southeast WV, will see low temperatures in the 30s once again. Probabilities for temperatures 32 degrees F or less between 35% to 45% for the southeast WV mountains Monday and Tuesday mornings. By early next week, the growing season for mountain zones will be open, so there could be a need for frost/freeze headlines to be issued. See climate and fire weather sections below for details on records and fire danger. KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front brings a few chances for rain and ushers in cooler air by the end of the weekend. Upper level ridging moves away Saturday as a deep trough over the Northern Plains shifts into the OH Valley. A cold front and the mean trough push through late Sunday into Monday, with showers and storms starting as early as Saturday afternoon in the mountains ahead of the system before expanding east. The stronger lift will be located to our north, but we should see widespread chances for showers with a few embedded storms possible as the anafront pushes through. Unfortunately, plenty of antecedent dry air in the low and mid levels of the atmosphere will likely keep much rain from reaching the ground. The lack of moisture and the late night timing of the front will preclude any severe weather concerns. GEFS ensembles only give about a 30 percent chance of getting more than a tenth of an inch for SW WV and the western mountains of SW VA and NW NC for this event. Farther east, members show the precipitation breaking up over the Blue Ridge, with just a few hundredths of rain falling. This will do very little to improve the drought situation. We could see a few light upslope snow and rain showers over the Greenbrier Valley Sunday night behind the system. Dense high pressure builds in behind the front for early to mid week next. The warmer weather will give way to cooler weather Sunday and Monday, with some improvement by Wednesday. Overnight lows will once again freezing Sunday and Monday night. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions look to prevail through the TAF period, with west/southwest winds at around 5-10 knots expected through the TAF period. Gusts through the 18-00 UTC timeframe today look will be around 12-18 knots. Overall, no major concerns at terminals through the period as VFR flight conditions prevail. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Mainly dry with VFR conditions into Saturday. There is a front/upper disturbance arriving Thu night- Friday that may bring showers and sub-VFR to the mountains before improving. The pattern changes over the weekend with a stronger front moving through with a better chance of showers and potential for sub- VFR cigs/vbsy, especially for the mountains. Light W/SW winds turn briefly WNW Friday afternoon and evening with gusts as high as 20 kts. WInds diminish overnight, then become SW and gusty again for Saturday. NW Winds behind the second system will be gusty Sunday to 30 knots for the mountains. Cooler weather and VFR conditions follow for early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Unusually warm and dry conditions will take place with record heat possible through Thursday. Some rainfall is possible Thursday into Friday, but probabilities appear low and confined to the mountains, which will only prolong the ongoing drought. Relative humidities will fall towards 20 to 30 percent for the next few afternoons, especially east of the Blue Ridge. Some southern-facing slopes may have relative humidities drop below 20 percent with afternoon sunshine and gusty winds, due to an unstable atmosphere from the increasing heat. These aforementioned conditions will escalate the danger of adverse fire behavior across the entire region. The anomalous heat and low humidity combined with daytime gusts will only make fire containment increasingly difficult throughout the rest of this week. The next notable chance for any widespread wetting rainfall may not come until Sunday when a cold front arrives to bring some relief. && .CLIMATE... The following record high maximums and record high minimums, or warmest lows, are in jeopardy due to the abnormal warmth over the next couple of days: Wednesday: Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Roanoke 89 in 1936 67 in 2024 Lynchburg 89 in 1941 65 in 1896 Danville 91 in 2006 68 in 1922 Bluefield 89 in 1922 60 in 2006 Blacksburg 83 in 1941 57 in 1954 Thursday: Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Roanoke 90 in 2002 61 in 2017 Lynchburg 91 in 2002 65 in 1912 Danville 92 in 2002 64 in 1916 Bluefield 81 in 2012 66 in 2006 Blacksburg 82 in 1941 61 in 1941 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AS/SH AVIATION...EB/SH FIRE WEATHER...AS/WP CLIMATE...PW/SH