FGUS66 KRSA 021632 ESGCA1 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CALIFORNIA-NEVADA RIVER FORECAST CENTER SACRAMENTO CA 8:32 AM PST MON MAR 2 2026 …LOW FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SPRING SNOWMELT ACROSS CALIFORNIA… The potential for flooding due to spring snowmelt in the California Nevada River Forecast Center’s domain is very low given that the state-average snowpack is below normal. With warm and dry conditions expected over the first half of March, snowmelt will continue at an above normal rate; however, flooding due to snowmelt is very low. Note that flooding in California could also result from heavy rainfall alone, or combined with snowmelt anytime during the spring. CURRENT BASIN CONDITIONS SNOWPACK The snowpack in the Northern Sierra & Trinity regions are currently well below normal for this time of year, sitting at 45% of average. The Central Sierra is slightly better, but still much below normal at 67% of average. The Southern Sierra is only slightly below normal sitting at 90% of average. Statewide, snowpack is 66% of normal. These percentages are expected to decrease in the weeks ahead given the forecasted warm and dry conditions for the next few weeks. PRECIPITATION Unlike the snowpack, precipitation totals for the current water year are near normal for most of California from the Northern Sierra down through most of the Southern Sierra. The Tulare is slightly above normal and the Klamath is slightly below normal. Many of the storms were warmer than average this year resulting in a disproportionate amount of precipitation falling in the form of rain compared to snow. This is the reason why total precipitation is near normal, but snowpack is below normal. SEASONAL (APRIL-JULY) RUNOFF FORECASTS The seasonal runoff projections follow similar trends to the snowpack The seasonal runoff forecasts for the northern areas, including the Klamath and Upper Sacramento, are forecasted to be below normal ranging from 60-80% of average. The Northern and Central Sierra covering the Feather down through the Merced are projected to be much below normal ranging from 50-65% of normal. The Southern Sierra is expected to fair the best with seasonal runoff projections ranging from 75-85% of normal. FLOOD EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES Flood potential due to pure snowmelt is very low this spring throughout CA. Currently, the vast majority of forecast locations have less than a 10% chance of flooding through the March-May period. The one exception is The west fork of the Carson River where there is a 14% chance of exceeding minor flood stage during the spring. It is important to note that potential for large springtime rainfall events resulting in river flooding is still present and should be monitored throughout the spring. Consult the NWPS long range flood risk map for the latest point exceedance probabilities. SUMMARY Risk of California flooding due to pure snowmelt is very low given the below normal snowpack conditions. Refer to the long range outlook product for flood exceedance probabilities at particular locations for the March throughMay period. Flooding due to rainfall is still a risk for much of the spring season. Consult the CNRFC homepage for near-term flood threats: https://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/.