FXUS64 KSJT 151124
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
624 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances will persist into this afternoon, with a
  threat for severe storms each day.

- A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances
  and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Complex of thunderstorms continue across the Edwards Plateau early
this morning, tracking northeast. This may affect portions of the
Northwest Hill Country and will continue to watch it and update
POPs ahead of it as needed this morning.

For the rest of the day, a very similar setup to what we have seen
on Monday and Tuesday. Unstable air mass across the area for the
afternoon with CAPE values at or above 2500 J/kg. Dryline will
become established and slide east to near the western borders of
the Big Country and Concho Vally by mid/late afternoon. Again,
convergence along the dryline is relatively weak and there is
limited upper level support. If a storm can develop and sustain
itself, it will have plenty of instability to work with and large
hail will be possible. But trying to pin down if/where along the
dryline a storm will actually develop and how widespread anything
may be remains the uncertainty. Similarly to the yesterday, model
blend POPs just seem excessively high considering the coverage
seen in pretty much every CAM. Will knock down POPs across the
board down into the 30-40% range. POPs can always be updated and
increased later today if storms start to develop.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Looks like mainly quiet weather for Thursday across the area as weak
upper level ridging will be in control. The next strong storm system
with a sharper dryline will move into the Central and Southern
Plains Friday. Looks like the more organized severe weather will
remain north of our area. However, isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible across west central Texas during the late afternoon into
Friday night. A cold front is south of the area Saturday morning
with cooler and mainly dry weather this weekend into early next
week. However, return southerly flow may result in a low chance of
showers and a few thunderstorms early next week. Temperatures
will be slightly above normal this week. Please keep up with the
latest weather information as the month of April is severe weather
season.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

A mix of low, mid, and high clouds continue to stream across West
Central Texas this morning. MVFR and even some IFR cigs are patchy
and this will likely continue into the mid/late morning hours. May
take until noon, but even the southern and southeastern terminals
will eventually become VFR. Models continue to struggle with
if/when/where convection may redevelop across the area this
afternoon, and until this becomes a little more certain, will
leave out of the terminal forecast for now. South to southeast
winds will prevail and will continue to be gusty at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     85  63  88  66 /  40  10  10  10
San Angelo  86  62  88  65 /  30  10  10  10
Junction    81  61  87  61 /  50  10  10   0
Brownwood   80  62  86  64 /  40  10  10  10
Sweetwater  87  62  90  66 /  30   0  10  10
Ozona       83  62  85  64 /  20  10  10  10
Brady       80  62  85  64 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...07