FXUS63 KTOP 151111
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
611 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storm threat once again today mainly by late
afternoon/evening along the cold front over east-central into
portions of far northeast Kansas. Hail and wind will be the
primary hazards with a low tornado threat.

- A stronger storm system set to arrive by Friday afternoon which
may bring a larger severe threat to the area especially by afternoon
into the evening hours. All hazards may be in focus.

- Saturday and Sunday morning could see frost and freeze hazards
mainly across areas north of I-70.

- Some north-central Kansas counties may see elevated fire danger
conditions set up during Saturday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Early this morning, showers and storms remain mainly northeast of
the area and also south of the area ahead of the main western trough
in place with axis from the northern Plains into the Baja region. A
cold front is roughly along the KS/NE border from southeast NE
extending into west central Kansas which is quasi-stationary at the
moment. The dryline has retreated back to southwestern KS and
western OK. A deep moist Gulf airmass remains in place this morning
across the area with dewpoints in the 60s. A LLJ is overhead which
is helping keep WAA in place aloft for nocturnal storms to remain in
place across the aforementioned areas. The associated isentropic
ascent should allow a few of the southern showers and embedded non-
severe storms to work into central and east-central Kansas areas
over the next several hours. Expect these to generally weaken into
the mid-morning hours then gradual clearing should take place
through the day.

This sets the stage for potential severe storms later this afternoon
mainly along the cold front as it is pushed west to east across the
area. The upper trough remains mostly positive to neutrally tilted
as it advances east. Overall, the phased upper system is expected to
undergo a decoupling of sorts as the southern flank deamplifies and
the northern portion lifts east/northeast. This will help push the
front through the area. As the cap weakens due to the forcing aloft
combined with surface heating after clouds clear into the afternoon
then expect storms along the cold front. Shear vectors appear to be
somewhat parallel to the upper flow as the trough remains mainly
positively tilted. This should allow for any initially discrete
updrafts to interact with other updrafts fairly quickly and lead
storms to more naturally want to congeal. Could see early storms
posses a very large hail threat with the unstable and highly sheared
environment. Then if a bowing structure can develop wind would be
favored but also can't rule out a tornado threat especially if this
occurs. The big uncertainty appears to be when clouds clear and how
strong the remaining cap is near anticipated initiation by late
afternoon. Also, if the cold front begins to move faster then that
could focus the better storm threat even east and southeast of the
area. This will have to be tracked through the day today.

Right now, Friday looks to have a larger severe threat potential as
an intense Pacific trough digs into the central Plains. Deep Gulf
moisture easily returns to the area with return flow ahead of the
forcing that moves into the are by Friday morning into the
afternoon. The forcing could be at a magnitude that causes any cap
to quickly erode without requiring much heating into the afternoon.
This could either be strong enough to cause more showers to develop
earlier than anticipated or it could help foster the rapid
development of supercells if no showers develop ahead of the system.
Shear again looks mainly parallel to the flow so interactions would
be likely again. Could see the initial storms become a very large
hail threat again then transition to a wind and tornado threat. Any
training would probably lead to flooding with several areas seeing
high rainfall amounts already the past several days not considering
what occurs this afternoon for rainfall amounts.

Colder and drier weather not to be ignored into Saturday and Sunday
morning may give rise to concerns for frost/freeze conditions mainly
north of I-70. Saturday could also see dry and windy conditions into
the afternoon over north central areas leading to elevated fire
danger conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Satellite and forecast sounding trends hint at a brief period of
MVFR CIGS at the Topeka airports for the first few hours of this
TAF period. VFR is expected for the rest of the day with
gusty south-southwest winds continuing. Winds will shift more
westerly as a cold front approaches, and will subside after
sunset. A few storms could form near Topeka along the cold front
this afternoon, but chances are higher east of terminals.
Therefore, have not included TS with this update.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Teefey