FGUS64 KTUA 111550 ESGTUA Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service, ABRFC, Tulsa, Oklahoma 945 AM CST, Wednesday, February 11, 2026 COLORADO -- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN-- The Rocky Mountains The potential for flood conditions is near normal this spring across the Arkansas River Basin in Colorado. Flooding at most forecast points in the Colorado Rocky Mountains is driven by rapid snowpack runoff or isolated, high-intensity rainfall. Snowpack for the entire basin is significantly below normal. Snowpack is near 50% normal at the upper reaches of the Arkansas River. Snowpack is well below 50% normal along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern Colorado. As measured at high altitude SNOTEL monitoring stations, the mountains of the Arkansas River basin have received approximately 72 percent-of-median precipitation and have accumulated 43 percent-of- median snowpack this water year. A more detailed table is included below. S N O W - P R E C I P I T A T I O N U P D A T E Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites As of Wednesday: February 11 , 2026 ------------------------------------------------------------------- BASIN ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT TOTAL PRECIPITATION Data Site Name (Ft) % % Current Median Median Current Median Median ------------------------------------------------------------------- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN APISHAPA 10027 0.0 5.3 0 3.9 8.2 48 BRUMLEY 10594 2.9 6.5 45 5.2 8.4 62 FREMONT PASS 11326 4.7 10.8 44 6.0 10.6 57 GLEN COVE 11391 1.1 2.6 42 4.9 6.6 74 MEDANO PASS 9668 2.4 4.8 50 7.0 6.8 103 NORTH COSTILLA 10598 0.0 5.2 0 3.8 8.4 45 PORPHYRY CREEK 10788 7.3 10.2 72 9.4 9.6 98 SOUTH COLONY 10868 5.7 11.9 48 12.5 14.5 88 WHISKEY CK 10290 2.5 6.6 38 4.8 9.5 51 ----- ----- Basin wide percent-of-median 43 72 Units = inches for the Current and Average Snow Water Equivalent and Total Precipitation values At the end of January, mountain reservoirs in the Upper Arkansas River Basin (Turquoise, Twin Lakes, Pueblo) were at 57 percent of capacity, 99 percent of median storage, and 87 percent of last year's storage. Current soil moisture estimates from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) are below normal (10-30th percentile) in the Upper Arkansas River Basin. The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 5, 2026 indicates that there are currently significant drought conditions in the Upper Arkansas River Basin. Small pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) and Exceptional Drought (D4) are seen in the far-upper reaches of the Arkansas River Valley. Severe Drought (D2) and Moderate Drought (D1) are also seen in spots across the Upper Arkansas River Basin. The most recent US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for drought conditions to persist and develop across more of the basin over the next 3 months. The most recent CPC outlook for the next 3 months (FEB-MAR-APR) indicates equal chances of above, near, or below normal temperatures across the upper reaches of the Arkansas River Valley. The outlook calls for an increased chance for above normal temperatures in Southern Colorado over the next 3 months. The precipitation outlook for the same period indicates increased chances of below normal precipitation in the Arkansas River Basin of Colorado. The Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) model does not indicate a greater than 50 percent chance of flooding at any forecast point on the headwaters of the Arkansas River above Pueblo. The table below contains a summary of some potential maximum stages from the model output. Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction As of Tuesday: February 10, 2026 Feb 11 - Jun 11 50% Exceedence Weekly Flood 50% exceedence 50% exceedence Station Stage(ft) Maximum Stage (ft) Maximum Stage (ft) ------------------------------------------------------------------ Leadville 9.0 5.9 5.8 Salida 8.0 3.9 3.8 Wellsville 9.0 5.2 5.1 Parkdale 9.0 4.3 4.1 Canon City 10.0 7.5 7.3 Portland 9.0 3.9 3.7 Pueblo 8.0 5.5 5.2 Eastern Plains The potential for flood conditions is near normal this spring. Normal conditions for southeastern Colorado reflect a low probability of flooding. Most flooding in this area is directly related to specific heavy precipitation events. The Arkansas River is currently flowing at near normal levels downstream from Pueblo Reservoir. Fountain Creek is flowing at below normal levels. The Purgatoire River is flowing at below normal levels. Reservoir storage below Pueblo (Meredith, Trinidad, and John Martin) at the end of January was at 11 percent of capacity, 83 percent of median storage, and 91 percent of last year's storage. Current Climate Prediction Center (CPC) soil moisture estimates for the area indicate near normal soil conditions (30-70th percentile) in the plains of southeastern Colorado. The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 5, 2026 indicates that there are currently no drought conditions in the Lower Arkansas River Basin in Colorado. The most recent US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for some increase in drought conditions over the next 3 months. The table below presents some southeastern Colorado forecast points where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10% chance of minor flooding over the next 90 days. Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction As of Tuesday: February 10, 2026 Fcst Point % Probability % Probability % Probability Station Minor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding ID ADLC2 78 22 11 ARCC2 16 8 7 FWLC2 40 30 12 LXHC2 83 65 16 LAPC2 74 34 3 NPTC2 72 48 24 ******************************************************* * * * This, and additional Water Supply Information, * * can be found on our Web Page at: * * * * www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply * * * ******************************************************* SOUTHERN KANSAS The potential for flood conditions in southern Kansas is near normal this spring. Most flooding in this area is directly related to specific heavy precipitation events. Precipitation anomalies during the last 90 days have been mixed across southern Kansas. Conditions have been wet across Southwest Kansas, except along the Oklahoma border. In contrast, precipitation has been below normal across much of the remainder of Southern Kansas. The driest areas in far- southeast Kansas have received less than 50% of normal precipitation over the past 90 days. Streamflows are near normal on the Arkansas River. Flows are near to below normal in southeastern Kansas, especially down the Neosho River. Reservoir storage in southern Kansas is slightly below normal. U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicate that Corps reservoirs in southern Kansas currently have near 100 percent of their flood-control storage available. Current Climate Prediction Center (CPC) soil moisture estimates indicate above normal soil moisture over much of southwestern Kansas. Estimates are above the 70th percentile in this area. Elsewhere across much of the remainder of Southern Kansas, soil moisture is near normal (30-70th percentile). However, soil moisture deficits increase significantly near the Missouri border, where soil moisture is below the 20th percentile. The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 5, 2026 indicates Moderate Drought (D1) conditions across parts of southeastern Kansas. There are a few pockets of Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions across the remainder of Southern Kansas, but much of the area has no drought designation. The US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for the drought to persist across Southeast Kansas over the next 3 months. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlook for the next 3 months (FEB-MAR- APR) indicates equal chances for above, near, or below normal temperatures across Kansas. The CPC outlook also indicates increased chances of below normal precipitation across Western Kansas. The table below presents some southern Kansas forecast points where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10% chance of minor flooding over the next 90 days. Select Points in Southern Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction As of Tuesday, February 10, 2026 Fcst. Point WFO % Probability % Probability % Probability Station Minor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding ID AGAK1 ICT 13 Not Expected Not Expected ALBK1 ICT 19 13 10 ALMK1 ICT 30 12 Not Expected ARCK1 ICT 69 11 Not Expected ARKK1 ICT 12 Not Expected Not Expected ATOK1 ICT 22 6 Not Expected BLPK1 ICT 12 7 5 CBNK1 ICT 65 5 Not Expected CFVK1 ICT 18 9 Not Expected CNUK1 ICT 48 15 4 COWK1 ICT 12 Not Expected Not Expected CTWK1 ICT 16 9 Not Expected DRBK1 ICT 11 5 4 EDWK1 ICT 11 9 5 EREK1 ICT 46 29 18 FLRK1 ICT 18 5 Not Expected FRNK1 ICT 54 7 Not Expected HAVK1 ICT 12 9 6 HTCK1 ICT 85 60 4 HTDK1 ICT 28 4 Not Expected IDPK1 ICT 41 Not Expected Not Expected IOLK1 ICT 33 10 Not Expected LYNK1 ICT 22 Not Expected Not Expected MDKK1 ICT 36 10 4 MULK1 ICT 11 5 3 OSWK1 ICT 71 49 10 OXFK1 ICT 30 16 Not Expected PECK1 ICT 18 4 Not Expected PLYK1 ICT 20 11 Not Expected PPFK1 ICT 65 48 Not Expected SEDK1 ICT 11 4 Not Expected TOWK1 ICT 21 6 4 WELK1 ICT 68 40 7 WFDK1 ICT 30 16 5 AMCK1 TOP 11 6 Not Expected EMPK1 TOP 43 12 Not Expected EPRK1 TOP 16 9 Not Expected LRYK1 TOP 19 19 Not Expected NEOK1 TOP 30 28 Not Expected ******************************************************* * * * This, and additional Water Supply Information, * * can be found on our Web Page at: * * * * www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply * * * ******************************************************* SOUTHWEST MISSOURI The potential for flood conditions in southwestern Missouri is near normal this spring. Most flooding in this area is related to specific heavy rainfall events. Precipitation for the last 90 days across southwestern Missouri has been below normal with most areas seeing less than 50% of normal. Streamflows are below normal. Soil moisture is significantly below normal (less than 10th percentile). The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 5, 2026 indicates Extreme Drought (D3), Severe Drought (D2), and Moderate Drought (D1) across Southwest Missouri. The US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for this to persist over the next 3 months. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlook for the next 3 months (FEB-MAR-APR) indicates equal chances of above, below, or near normal temperatures across southwestern Missouri. There are also equal chances for above, below, or near normal precipitation over the same period. The table below presents some southwestern Missouri forecast points where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10 percent chance of minor flooding over the next 90 days. Select Points in Southwest Missouri Ensemble Streamflow Prediction As of Tuesday: February 10, 2026 Fcst. Point % Probability % Probability % Probability Station Minor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding ID CHTM7 41 10 Not Expected JOPM7 20 7 4 TIFM7 24 6 3 WCOM7 40 Non Expected Not Expected BXTK1 45 24 Not Expected ******************************************************* * * * This, and additional Water Supply Information, * * can be found on our Web Page at: * * * * www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply * * * ******************************************************* Thanks to the USGS for streamflow condition data, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for reservoir condition data, the Natural Resource Conservation Service for SNOTEL data, and the Climate Prediction Center for the precipitation and temperature outlooks, the soil moisture deficits, and the Drought Outlook. $$