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        Water Supply Outlook                                              April 3, 2026


	ABRFC uses the 1991-2020 AVERAGE runoff volume as our Normal at each point.

	Snowfall across the Arkansas and Canadian River Basins continues to be scarce
	this season. Most of the snowpack in the Canadian Basin has already melted. After
	the warm conditions in late March, a significant portion of the already meager
	snowpack melted before the runoff season began across much of Colorado.

	Seasonal runoff (April-September) is forecast to be 38 percent-of-average for the
	Arkansas River at Salida and 39 percent-of-average below Pueblo Reservoir. Runoff
	from Grape Creek, the Cucharas River and the Huerfano River is forecast to be 34,
	26, and 31 percent-of-average, respectively. Chalk Creek is forecast to provide
	40 percent-of-average runoff.  Runoff from the Purgatoire River is forecast to
	be 30 percent-of-average.

	In New Mexico, seasonal runoff (March-June) from Rayado and Ponil Creeks is
	forecast to be 16 and 18 percent-of-average, respectively. The Vermejo and
	Cimarron Rivers are forecast to be 17 and 14 percent-of-average, respectively.

	Water-year-to-date precipitation (October-March) in the mountain headwaters of
	Colorado is well below median, overall. Reports range from 43 percent-of-median at
	Apashapa to 87 percent-of-median at Porphyry Creek. Snowpack above Salida, as
	measured by (NRCS) SNOTEL sites, is well below normal at 21 percent-of-median.
	Snowpack in the Cucharas, Huerfano, and Purgatoire River basins is mostly melted.
	
	New Mexico's water-year-to-date precipitation is well below normal. Reports range
	from 41 percent-of-median at Palo to 46 percent-of-median at Red River Pass. The
	snowpack in the Canadian Basin has mostly melted, with most sites reporting no
	snowpack.
	
	Reservoir storage in the Arkansas River system is 98 percent-of-median above Pueblo
	Reservoir and 85 percent-of-median below the reservoir. The upper reservoirs are at
	88 percent of last year's total. The lower reservoirs are at 87 percent of last
	year's total.

	The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues three-month temperature and precipitation
	outlooks for the nation. The temperature outlook for April through June calls for
	increased chances of above normal temperatures in New Mexico and Colorado. The CPC
	precipitation outlook also calls for increased chances for below normal
	precipitation across northern New Mexico and Colorado.


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