FXCA20 KWBC 141852
PMDCA

Tropical Discussion - International Desks
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Forecast Bulletin 14 April 2026 at 2000 UTC:

In the upper levels...

The axis of a mid-to-upper level trough is currently located
across Hispaniola and a jet streak max is present in its exit
region, which happens to be over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands,
and the northern Lesser Antilles. A potent mid-level cut-off low
will also be present north of the region and will support the
decrease in mid-level temperatures. Thereafter, expect the
weakening of the mid-level low. Starting on Wednesday, another
upper level trough will be arriving into the Caribbean and it will
deepen into the Caribbean Sea. This trough will combine with the
aforementioned upper trough. By Thursday, the upper trough axis
will extend into Panama and its exit region will be located over
northwest Colombia. Meanwhile, a broad ridge will intensify across
southern Mexico and northern Central America starting on
Wednesday, leading to the increase in subsidence in the region and
divergence along its periphery.

In the low levels...

An induced trough is currently tilted across Hispaniola, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands. It is expected to continue
propagating westward with passing days. On Tuesday evening, the
axis of the trough will be entering the Dominican Republic (DR).
There will be northeasterly low level winds converging into the DR
during the day on Tuesday, which will enhance moisture convergence
and orographic effects, yielding moderate total precipitation
maxima. As the trough axis moves westward, there will be an
increase in easterly and southeasterly low level winds across the
region. Still, precipitable water values will be reaching 45mm.
Thus, a moderate daily total precipitation maxima is likely across
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (VI)  for Tuesday and
Wednesday. There will also be a risk for thunderstorms on Tuesday
in Puerto Rico and the VI that will be maintained by the unstable
environment. Meanwhile across the DR on Thursday, there will be an
influx of easterly low level winds that will support moist air
advection and will yield moderate total precipitation maxima
behind the trough axis. The trough will be moving across Haiti,
the southeast coast of Cuba, and Turks and Caicos, also supporting
moist air advection.

Across Costa Rica and Panama, there will be ongoing easterly low
level winds that will continue to converge into the coast, leading
to moisture pooling. Shallow thunderstorms and showers are likely
for the next three days, yielding light daily total precipitation
maxima. Meanwhile along the Pacific coasts of Guatemala, El
Salvador, and Costa Rica, expect the intensification of the local
low level jets. This pattern will sustain a surface high pressure
system off the coast of Guatemala and El Salvador that will
support onshore flow along its northern periphery and thus favor
moisture pooling. Off the coast of Costa Rica, a low level trough
will be present in the region and also lead to moisture pooling.
For the next three days, light total precipitation maxima is
likely in these regions.

Another region of interest is Colombia. On Tuesday, speed
divergence will be present in the region. By Wednesday, the
aforementioned mid-to-upper level trough will be sustaining the
upper divergence in the region. The period with the greatest
precipitation impact will be Tuesday and Wednesday as the
precipitable water values will be surpassing 40mm. There will be a
gradual decrease in precipitable water values on Thursday and the
mid-to-upper level trough will be moving east into Venezuela.
Thus, expect elevated total precipitation maxima for Tuesday and
Wednesday in Colombia.

Across the Amazon Basin, there will be low level wind confluence
across the western Amazon which will assist in the increase in
moisture convergence. A mid level ridge will also support the
transport of moist air from the Atlantic into the Amazon Basin.
There  will also be a series of low level troughs that will be
traversing the basin and they will enhance moisture convergence.
These features will yield moderate total precipitation maxima for
the next three days. Along the Atlantic coast of Brasil, the
long-fetch moisture plume associated with the Intertropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ) will be shifting northward for Wednesday,
increasing precipitation chances across the Guianas after
Wednesday. Expect enhanced accumulations in the vicinity of this
moisture plume. Along the Pacific coasts of Colombia, Ecuador, and
Peru, on-shore flow will support moisture convergence and
orographic effects for the next three days. In particular, on
Tuesday and Wednesday, expect enhanced accumulations along the
Pacific coast of Colombia. Thereafter, there will be a drying
trend. Meanwhile in Ecuador, expect ongoing onshore flow and
elevated precipitable water values to be present in the area,
which will yield moderate to enhanced total precipitation maxima.


Tinoco-Morales...(WPC)


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