FXUS06 KWBC 142002 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EST Wed January 14 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 20 - 24 2026 The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble means continue to predict a highly amplified circulation pattern over North America and surrounding regions during the 6 to 10 day period. An amplified mean 500-hPa ridge is maintained in the central North Pacific, with an axis stretching northward through western Alaska. Mean height anomalies peaking between +30 and +33 dm along the western tier of Mainland Alaska, demonstrating a manual blend with a slightly lower peak anomaly than yesterday, but which is more elongated north-south through western Alaska and into the Polar regions. Downstream, a fairly amplified mean mid-level trough is again forecast with an axis from central Canada through the eastern Contiguous United States (CONUS). Heights are expected to progressively increase through the period in the south-central and southeastern CONUS while mid-level troughing begins to dig into the western CONUS from central Canada, downstream from the strong mid-level ridge. By the end of the period, 500-hPa heights rise above normal over the south-central and southeastern CONUS, possibly as far north as the mid-Atlantic region. Farther north, mid-level heights also increase significantly, confining significantly below-normal 500-hPa heights to the northern tier of the northeastern CONUS at the end of the period. This results in a less-meridional mid-level trough from southeastern Canada into the adjacent CONUS at the end of the period, with less-amplified mid-level flow developing across the eastern CONUS. Meanwhile, above-normal 500-hPa heights are dislodged from the western CONUS as subnormal heights across interior Canada are forced to dig into the western CONUS downstream from the strong 500-hPa ridge over Alaska. This results in a positively-tilted trough with an axis from near central Canada southwestward through the western CONUS, with 500-hPa heights near or more than 12 dm below normal over the northern Rockies. This pattern evolution is generally consistent across the ensemble means and the deterministic European (ECMWF) model. Today, the Canadian ensemble (CMCE) mean is stronger than yesterday with the Pacific-Alaska 500-hPa ridge, but the GEFS mean is a bit weaker than yesterday, and weaker than both the CMCE mean and European ensemble (ECENS) means, which are favored in this forecast. The ECMWF maintains a bit more amplitude, and features larger 500-hPa height swings than the ensemble means, but the locations and relative strengths of the primary features in the 500-hPa pattern are similar. Across the CONUS, positive 500-hPa height anomalies favor above normal temperatures across most of the western through south-central CONUS. The ensemble reforecasts and the consolidation push increased odds for above normal temperatures northward to the Canadian border, but the raw and bias-corrected model output is cooler across northern parts of the western CONUS. This is in better agreement with analogs, teleconnections, and the evolving 500-hPa pattern, and is reflected in the official outlook. Farther east, the CMCE reforecast shows temperatures averaging above normal in the southeastern CONUS while the GEFS reforecast maintains subnormal temperatures longer. The ECENS reforecast splits the difference, showing near normal temperatures. The raw and bias-corrected output from all of the ensembles, along with the dynamical ECMWF, better resembles the colder GEFS solution, and the official forecast leans in this direction, keeping mean temperatures below normal across the Southeast. Odds for subnormal temperatures exceed 40 percent as far south as the central Carolinas, with subnormal mean temperatures at least marginally favored into central and southeastern Georgia. The best odds for below-normal temperatures (over 70 percent) are closer to the 500-hPa negative anomaly center, around the Great Lakes and near the St. Lawrence Seaway. Meanwhile, the likelihood of above-normal temperatures exceeds 60 percent from portions of the Four Corners Region into western Texas, with odds above 50 percent across a broad area including much of the Great Basin, the Southwest, the central and southern Rockies, and the western and southern sections of Texas. Warmer than normal weather is also favored across Alaska, consistent with the highly-amplified mid-level ridge there. Farther south, today's forecast favors near normal temperatures across Hawaii, consistent with increased clouds and precipitation associated with a persistent Kona low near the island chain. In today's 6-10 day precipitation forecast, surplus precipitation is at least nominally favored over much of the CONUS, indicative of a sharp increase in precipitation coverage and intensity from relative to shorter-term forecasts. Heavier than normal precipitation is favored to some degree in most areas from the Southwest and the Rockies eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, excepting only a swath from the south-central Great Plains through the western Great Lakes region, a stripe along the immediate coastline in the Southeast, and peninsular Florida. The best odds for abnormal wetness exceed 50 percent just south of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers' confluence, where moist Gulf inflow is expected to interact with a developing frontal system separating cold air over the eastern CONUS from warmer conditions farther west. Chances for above-normal precipitation are over 40 percent throughout the High Plains and some adjacent areas, and from central and eastern Texas through the southern half of the Mississippi Valley, the Lower Ohio Valley, and the interior Southeast. Enhanced chances for below-normal precipitation are limited to the central Florida Peninsula and far western Washington, where the likelihood of abnormal dryness remains below 40 percent. Drier than normal weather is expected across southern Alaska while surplus precipitation is favored across central and southern portions of the state, consistent with the consolidation. Farther south, Hawaii has a 60 to 70 percent chance of above-normal precipitation throughout the state with a Kona low affecting the island chain. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 25% of Today's operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8, and 15% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average (4 out of 5) due to good agreement on the evolving mid-level pattern, tempered slightly by the less-amplified GEFS mean along with some differences between the raw and statistically-adjusted temperature and precipitation tools derived from the ensembles. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 22 - 28 2026 The manual height blend for week-2 is primarily an average of the ensemble means, with more weight allocated to the ECENS mean which has been the most consistent over the past couple of days. The 6z deterministic GFS is far more amplified than any of the ensemble means, which is not unreasonable given the tendency of the individual members of the ensembles to diverge with time, resulting in mean height anomalies that slide closer to normal with time. Therefore, the 6z GFS was given some influence to increase the amplitude of features depicted by the ensemble means. The strong mid-level ridge is maintained from the central North Pacific northward through Alaska, although the greatest 500-hPa anomalies are slightly lower than yesterday. Downstream, a mid-level trough axis stretches from central and eastern Canada through most of the northern tier of the CONUS and into the interior West. 500-hPa height anomalies associated with this feature are more negative in the Northeast than yesterday, but less so across the western CONUS. Meanwhile, slightly above-normal mid-level heights stretch from near Texas through the Southeast and lower mid-Atlantic region. This feature is similar to yesterday but suppressed slightly farther to the south. Guidance indicates that the pattern established at the end of the 6-10 day period across the CONUS may be transient, with the pattern shifting back toward the forecast for the start of the 6-10 day period, though somewhat less amplified. Week-2 starts with a digging mid-level trough over the western CONUS, and 500-hPa heights marginally above normal in or near the Southeast with the former eastern CONUS mid-level trough having retreated northward. Meanwhile, the strong ridge from the mid-Pacific into Alaska remains in place early in week-2. As the period evolves, the mid-level trough digging into the West appears to maximize around day 10 before it begins to deamplify and move eastward. This allows upstream mid-level heights to increase across the West, resulting in an area of somewhat above-normal 500-hPa heights over part of the Far West by the end of week-2, a less-amplified version of what is in place at the start of the 6-10 day period. Meanwhile, as the mid-level trough in the West pulls eastward, it helps re-establish lower 500-hPa heights and some degree of mid-level troughing along the East Coast, especially the Northeast, also a less-amplified version of the pattern anticipated at the start of the 6-10 day period. Closer to the Equator, the mid-level trough north of Hawaii strengthens somewhat and drifts slightly northward relative to the 6-10 day period, which continues to favor Kona low development. Above normal temperature chances are elevated across most of the western and southern CONUS, but guidance is inconsistent in the eastern CONUS regarding how far south below-normal mean temperatures will occur. The ECENS and CMCE reforecasts favor above-normal mean temperatures into the mid-Atlantic region while the GEFS reforecast, along with the bias-corrected and raw temperature tools, keep mean temperatures below normal as far south as the northern Carolinas. The official forecast is a compromise that tilts toward the colder solutions in the East, given the trend of the models is in this direction. A shift back toward stronger mid-level troughing in eastern North America is more favorable for the renewed delivery of cold Arctic air into part of the northern CONUS. Odds for below normal temperatures reflect this, reaching 70 percent in the northern Great Lakes Region. Farther west, whether or not the amplified mid-level ridge is deteriorating, it should remain strong enough to keep mean temperatures above normal across Alaska outside the Panhandle. Temperatures are expected to average near or nominally below-normal across Hawaii, where a persistent mid-level trough north of the state favors increased cloud cover and precipitation. Above normal precipitation is favored at least marginally across most of the CONUS for week-2. The best odds cover the Lower Ohio Valley and the adjacent Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, where a wavering boundary is expected to interact with moisture advecting from the Gulf. The chances for wetter than normal conditions exceed 50 percent in this region. Meanwhile, odds for wetness exceed 40 percent across a large swath through the interior eastern CONUS and the mid-Atlantic region, and from most of the High Plains through the central tier of the Rockies. Subnormal precipitation is not favored anywhere across the CONUS during week-2. The pattern across Alaska remains at least somewhat favorable for subnormal precipitation along the extreme southern tier of the state, with surplus precipitation favored farther north. Across Hawaii, the mid-level pattern is expected to continue to favor Kona low development, increasing the odds for above normal precipitation there. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 12% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 12% of Today's operational 6z GFS centered on Day 11, 60% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 16% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average (3 out of 5), due to general agreement on the mid-level circulation pattern early in week-2, tempered by increasing uncertainty later in the period and discrepancies among the various temperature and precipitation tools. FORECASTER: Rich Tinker Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on January 15. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20061231 - 20240128 - 20210114 - 20030104 - 20150123 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20061231 - 20170116 - 19890127 - 20120127 - 19910113 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jan 20 - 24 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL B B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jan 22 - 28 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON N N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$