FXUS24 KWNC 091306
PMDENS
El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM EDT Thu 09 Apr 2026

NOTE: figures mentioned in the discussion are available on
the internet at HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Nina Advisory / El Nino Watch

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are present and are favored
through April-June 2026 (80percent chance). In May-July 2026,
El Nino is likely to emerge (61percent chance) and persist
through at least the end of 2026.

During the last month, ENSO-neutral conditions emerged, as
indicated by near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean
(Fig. 1). The latest weekly Nino-3.4 index value was -0.2degC,
with the westernmost (Nino-4) and easternmost (Nino-1+2) indices
at +0.3degC and +0.6degC, respectively (Fig. 2). The equatorial
subsurface temperature index (average from 180deg-100degW)
increased for the fifth consecutive month (Fig. 3), with
above-average subsurface temperatures extending across the
Pacific (Fig. 4). Westerly wind anomalies were observed over the
western equatorial Pacific at low levels, and were evident over
the eastern Pacific at high levels. Convection was near average
over the Date Line, with suppressed convection over western
Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere
system reflected ENSO-neutral conditions.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average,
including the NCEP CFSv2 (Fig. 6), favors ENSO-neutral through
April-June 2026, with a transition to El Nino thereafter. El
Nino is likely because of increasing subsurface temperature
anomalies and recent westerly wind anomalies over the western
Pacific Ocean. However, the possible outcomes range from
ENSO-neutral to a very strong El Nino during the upcoming
Northern Hemisphere winter (Figs. 7 & 8). The possibility of
a very strong El Nino (1 in 4 chance of Nino-3.4 ≥ +2.0degC)
largely depends on the continuation of westerly wind anomalies
across the equatorial Pacific throughout the Northern Hemisphere
summer months, which is not assured. In summary, ENSO-neutral
conditions are present and are favored through April-June 2026
(80percent chance). In May-July 2026, El Nino is likely to
emerge (61percent chance) and persist through at least the
end of 2026.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather
Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric
conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction
Center website (El Nino/La Nina Current Conditions and Expert
Discussions). A probabilistic strength forecast is available
here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14
May 2026. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly
ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail
message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.



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