FXAK02 KWNH 142246 PMDAK Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion National Weather Service College Park MD 646 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Valid 12Z Sat 18 Apr 2026 - 12Z Wed 22 Apr 2026 ...Late Week Aleutians Storm threat to affect Southwest/Southern Alaska this weekend... ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... Guidance forecast clustering and predictability decreases significantly over the weekend due mainly to an uncertain interaction of upcoming Bering Sea deep system energy with downstream upper ridging along with potentially ample well downstream ripple affects from current West Pacific Super Typhoon Sinlaku as we proceed through medium range time scales. WPC product continuity is less than stellar mainly along and south of the state as recent guidance cycles remains quite varied over time, albeit with an overall 12 UTC cycle trend toward more progressive downstream translation of system energies. Given uncertainty, favor a GEFS but especially more middle of the road ECMWF ensemble mean based timing forecast solution from the weekend into next week. 12 UTC Canadian model and Canadian ensembles are now even more progressive, but offer a too stark change from their 00 UTC counterparts. In contrast, higher latitude flow evolution over the North Slope and Interior are more cycle to cycle consistent and the favored ensemble means are representative. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A late week upper trough/frontal system working over the northern Gulf of Alaska as well as a system from the northeast Pacific will support lingering unsettled weather for Southcentral and Southeast Alaska. Moderate coastal/lower elevation rain and snow into the mountains should gradually shift southeastward into Saturday. A tight pressure gradient across the North Slope and the Brooks Range due to a strong area of high pressure to the north will bring gusty winds out through especially the Bering Strait. The carving of a northern stream upper trough over the western mainland will provide cooling and some periodic snow showers from the Interior to the Alaska Range this weekend into next week. Upstream, a deepening low pressure system over the north Pacific will draw attention with lift northward across the Aleutians Friday before working over the southern Bering Sea Saturday. This system will bring a period of strong, gusty winds and heavy rain beginning late this week. Enhanced precipitation chances and winds will likely spread with greater uncertainty on amounts/coverage eastward to Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula this weekend. Eastward progression of upper level trough energy may also bring surface triple point low genesis and an associated downstream return of moderate to locally heavy precipitation and enhanced winds to Southcentral then Southeast Alaska into early next week along with potential gap wind enhancement with system passage. It is also noteworthy to monitor that a deep extratropical low associated with current West Pacific Super Typhoon Sinlaku is now slated to track well south of the state early-mid next week. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html