FXHW01 KWNH 150840
PMDHI

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 00Z Mon 16 Feb 2026 - 00Z Mon 23 Feb 2026

Upper ridging will be in place over the islands serving as a
bridge between two upper troughs through much of the extended
period. A modest influx of moisture today through Monday from the
northeast will support an increase in shower activity and
intensity. Breezy to windy conditions are also likely in
response to the pressure gradient between the high to the
northeast and a broad surface low/trough of low pressure south and
west of the archipelago. Winds should veer with time early to mid
next week as a surface high pressure area exerts more influence
from the north...which starts to draw deeper moisture northward
around the southwest periphery of the ridge.

A developing low northwest of the region is on tap by the
middle/end of the week. The low is expected to track toward the
main islands while the associated front lags behind. Some
uncertainty remain on whether this system will lead to a wetter or
drier period for the western part of the state.

$$

Campbell