FNUS28 KWNS 142206
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0504 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

...Synopsis...
A pronounced upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest Day
3/Thursday. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the
eastward propagating trough should promote dry, downslope flow and a
continued fire weather threat across the southern High Plains on Day
3/Thursday. A more widespread fire weather threat is expected on Day
4/Friday as the amplifying trough moves into the central U.S.
Farther east, upper-level ridging will keep much of the Mid Atlantic
and Southeastern U.S. dry through the week. The exceptionally dry
fuels and occasional elevated southerly winds will pose a lingering
fire weather threat across this region. Towards the end of the
forecast period, another deep trough will approach western CONUS.
While extended model discrepancy exists, fire weather concerns will
likely continue next week in regions that have seen minimal
precipitation.

...Portions of the Central/Southern Plains - Day 3/Thursday through
Day 6/Sunday...
On Day 3/Thursday, southwesterly flow aloft and subsequent lee
surface troughing will support a continued fire weather threat as
dry and breezy southwesterly surface flow extends into the
upper-central High Plains. Southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph combined
with RH hovering around 15 percent are expected across portions of
the southern Plains, with 40% probabilities of Critical fire weather
conditions maintained. North of a region of forecast precipitation
on Day 1/Tuesday - Day 2/Wednesday, 40% Critical probabilities have
been introduced across eastern WY, southern SD, and northern NE.
This is to account for 15-25 percent RH and southwesterly winds of
15-20 mph atop drying fuels. However, increasing mid/high level
clouds may dampen the bimodal fire environment to some extent,
precluding the introduction of 70% Critical probabilities at this
time.

A more pronounced and amplified upper-level trough approaches the
central CONUS by Day 4/Friday. The associated mid-level jet streak
and deepening surface cyclone across the central Plains will aid in
stronger west/southwest winds behind the persistent dry line. 70%
Critical probabilities have been maintained for Day 4/Friday across
much of east/southeastern NM, TX/OK Panhandles, and parts of West
Texas where extended guidance agreement portrays combined
probabilities of less than 15 percent RH and greater than 20 mph
winds, and the potential for an incoming cold front that may further
exacerbate the fire environment.

On Day 5/Saturday, locally elevated fire weather conditions may
arise in a dry post-frontal airmass, though uncertainty in frontal
timing and overlap of stronger winds and lower RH precludes the
introduction of probabilities at this time. As the amplified upper
trough exits the region on Day 6/Sunday, surface troughing across
High Plains and surface high pressure centered over east TX will
promote dry return flow for much of the region. Given the overall
pattern and ensemble guidance agreement in low RH and stronger
winds, 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced.

...Mid-Atlantic/Piedmont - Day 3/Thursday through Day 6/Sunday...
On Day 3/Thursday, a leading shortwave will aid in the breakdown of
the upper ridge across the East Coast. However, precipitation
chances are minimal east of the Blue Ridge Mountains, maintaining
dry conditions. Southwesterly winds of up to 10 mph and 25-35
percent RH atop receptive fuels support the introduction of 40%
Critical probabilities across the region. As the East Coast upper
ridge breaks down ahead of the deepening upper trough over the High
Plains on Day 4/Friday, the potential for a downslope wind event
exists in the lee of the Appalachians. Strong west/northwesterly
winds will traverse the Blue Ridge Mountains allowing for surface RH
to drop as surface winds increase along the Piedmont, promoting the
introduction of 40% Critical probabilities. On Day 5/Saturday, dry
southwesterly flow returns to the Piedmont and broader Southeast as
the surface low enters southern Ontario. With no expected
precipitation across the region, 40% Critical probabilities have
been introduced where dry and breezy conditions continue atop dry
fuels. Chances for precipitation increase on Day 6/Sunday as the
upper trough moves overhead, which could alleviate broader fire
concerns. However, the extent of wetting rainfall is uncertain,
precluding the introduction of probabilities at this time.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$