FXAK67 PAJK 151348
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
548 AM AKDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

-Patchy fog dissipates through Wednesday morning.

-Dry weather and clear skies on Wednesday.

-Chances of showers return Wednesday night into Thursday, and
 remain through the first half of the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...The forecast remains on track. Drier weather
remains across SE AK, as a weak mid-level ridge builds over the
area. Clearer skies will allow for warmer daytime high
temperatures, with highs reaching into the upper 40s or lower 50s
while. Through the early morning hours on Wednesday, some patchy
fog has developed across the Misty Fjords, PoW Island, and
Petersburg. Drier weather will begin to wind down Wednesday
evening as cloud cover builds back and a shortwave trough manages
to move over the ridge axis and into the panhandle. This
shortwave will increase precipitation chances across the northern
outer coast and eventually spread into the rest of the panhandle,
though precipitation is expected to remain light and mostly rain.
See the long term discussion for more information.

.LONG TERM...The low pressure from the short term will continue
to remain over the northern Gulf for the start of the long term
period. This will continue to bring showers to the panhandle. With
the showers affecting the panhandle, the precipitation type will
likely vary depending on the intensity of the shower as well as
location in the panhandle. Icy Strait northward has a better
chance of seeing a rain snow mix or straight snow while farther
south, a mix or straight rain is more likely. These showers are
expected to diminish going into Tuesday as the low ejects to the
south and high pressure moves into the Gulf.

This break is expected to be short though as another low is expected
to move into the area. Ensembles roughly agree on this low forming
just outside of the Prince William Sound area. GEFS and EPS ensemble
guidance continues to show some disagreement on the placement of the
surface low. Another concern with the low forming in this location
will be how much moisture can it pick up before the precip moves
into the area.

Heading into the extended period, CPC guidance shows us moving
towards cooler than normal temperatures and near to below normal
precipitation. One thing that will have to be watched going forward
during the entire long term period will be how much does the ever
increasing daylight and sun angle affect temperatures across the
panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION...Drier weather keeps VFR conditions across much of the
panhandle this morning, with the only impacts being some fog
development over parts of the southern panhandle. This has brought
Petersburg and Klawock down to 1/4 SM at times early this morning,
and will keep VIS between 1/4 and 1SM into the next few hours
before the fog begins to lift. Most of the fog will become patchy
and less impactful to VIS later into this morning before fully lifting
by 18z. VFR conditions will last through the rest of the TAF
period for the southern half of the panhandle once any fog lifts.

The northern panhandle will begin to see some precipitation move
in this afternoon into the evening, though CIGs are not expected
to begin to drop to MVFR until around 2 to 6z for the NE Gulf
Coast with showers moving through associated with a weak shortwave
tonight. Lowered CIGs bringing conditions down to MVFR will
impact the Icy Strait Corridor area by around 8 to 10z Thursday as
this feature moves E across the panhandle tonight. Winds will
start as northerly and weaker this morning, before switching to be
from the S as a push of southerly winds moves up Lynn Canal
around 00z, with a period of 15 to 20 kt SE / S winds for Haines /
Skagway with some gusty conditions associated, before winds begin
to diminish by 04 to 06z tonight. Winds for Icy Strait Corridor
will switch to become W into the morning with between 10 to 15 kt
expected before also diminishing.

&&

.MARINE...

Outer Coastal Waters: Westerly fresh to strong breezes continue
across the outer coastal waters on Wednesday. Wave heights of 4
to 5 ft in the northern gulf and 6 to 8 ft in the southern gulf
will steadily decrease through the day on Wednesday to around 4
and 6 ft, with the higher wave height lingering in the SE Coastal
waters. Winds will begin to turn more southeasterly as a system
approaches through the northern gulf Wednesday night into
Thursday. A barrier jet reaching strong breeze on Thursday is
expected around the vicinity of Kayak Island.

Inner Channels: Northerly winds have diminished through the
overnight hours, although a few locations still maintain moderate
breezes. Through Wednesday, winds will veer out of the S as the
pressure gradient flips and a weak trough moves over the ridge in
the Gulf and towards SE AK. Winds will build back to fresh breeze
across many of the inner channels through Wednesday night, with
some areas like Lynn Canal and Stephen's passage reaching strong
breeze through that timeframe - potentially even earlier (through
Wednesday afternoon). Winds remain out of the S through the
weekend, strengthening on occasion when a shortwave moves through.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ326-328.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...GFS

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