AGUS74 KWCO 172004
AHDNWC

Area Hydrological Discussion #046 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
256 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Flash, urban, and river flooding likely, locally
considerable possible
WHERE: Eastern Kansas into Missouri
WHEN: This evening through early tomorrow morning

FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
QPF: 1 - 2", locally higher (HRRR)
Rain Rates: 1 - 2"/hr, locally higher (HRRR)
Relative Soil Moisture: Normal to above normal (NASA SPoRT)

DISCUSSION...
Heavy showers and training thunderstorms will begin this evening
bringing a threat for flash, urban, and river flooding through early
tomorrow morning, some of which may be locally significant.
Antecedent conditions have yet to fully recover from previous showers
over the past week keeping the hydrologic environment primed for
efficient runoff. River flooding is also forecast across the area
with some slower responding rivers cresting outside of the issuance
timing of this AHD. Of particular concern is that the heaviest
precipitation is forecast during the night which could further
exacerbate the flood impacts due to the limited visibility and fast
responding nature of the smaller streams and overland flow.

The HRRR-forced NWM is signaling rapid-onset flooding with
probabilities of 26 - 75% across the area of concern. Peak flow
arrival time is also suggesting flows will begin their peak within
the next 10 - 16 hours which lines up well with the basins routing
flows downstream. There are pockets of low annual exceedance
probabilities (10 - 4%) which would suggest some locally significant
responses on small streams. The combination of flash flooding from
heavy, training rainfall and then rapid rises as that rainfall is
routed into the steam network may cause the overall flood threat to
linger even after the rainfall is out of the area.

GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION: weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd

Additional National Water Center products are available at:
weather.gov/owp/operations

//JAC

ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF...PAH...LSX
ATTN...RFC...TUA...ORN...KRF...MSR...WPC